Spurs at Thunder Game 5 Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
David Genge Published 25/05/2026
Game 5 between the Spurs and Thunder feels like the true turning point of the Western Conference Finals. San Antonio grabbed momentum with a dominant 103-82 win in Game 4, but Oklahoma City returns home where it already won Games 1 and 2 of this series. The Thunder are still listed as 5.5-point favorites, and the total sits at 215.5 entering Tuesday night.
Victor Wembanyama powered Game 4 with 33 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 blocks, controlling both ends of the floor. Oklahoma City shot 33% and committed 20 turnovers, which led to 25 Spurs points.
Best Bets for Spurs vs Thunder
- Spread: Spurs +5.5 (-110 at Polymarket). De'Aaron Fox has stabilized San Antonio's offense since returning from his ankle injury, and the Spurs committed only 12 turnovers in Game 4.
- Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 Assists (-105 at Polymarket). Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 10 assists in the series because San Antonio continues trapping him aggressively near the top of the floor.
- Total: Under 215.5 (-110 at Polymarket). Oklahoma City scored just 82 points in Game 4, and playoff Game 5 matchups usually slow down once rotations tighten.
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Spurs vs Thunder Game Preview
San Antonio matched Oklahoma City's physical style in Game 4 and forced the Thunder into a terrible shooting night. Oklahoma City shot just 6-for-33 from deep, while Stephon Castle helped limit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with strong perimeter defense and four forced turnovers.
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San Antonio still has the biggest matchup advantage in the series. The Spurs star finished Game 4 with 33 points and five assists while helping San Antonio dominate the rebounding battle.
The Thunder still have confidence heading into Game 5 after averaging over 118 points in their last 11 playoff games, though Jalen Williams' hamstring injury weakened their scoring depth in Game 4.
Moneyline Pick
The Thunder moneyline is still the safer side despite the Game 4 loss. Oklahoma City already bounced back once in this series after dropping Game 1, and their home defense remains one of the strongest in the playoffs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still runs the offense even when his scoring dips. He is averaging 24.8 points and 10 assists in the series, and Oklahoma City should see better shooting after hitting just 18.2% from three in Game 4.
Pick: Thunder ML - (-165 at Polymarket).
Spread Pick
The Spurs +5.5 remains the stronger spread play because San Antonio's defense has kept this series tight. The Spurs have covered in three of four games, and Fox's return has cut down turnovers after the 44-giveaway stretch early in the series. Rebounding is another key edge for San Antonio. Wembanyama, Castle, and Vassell are creating extra possessions that keep the Spurs inside the number late.
Pick: Spurs +5.5 - (-110 at Polymarket).
Best Player Props
- Victor Wembanyama: Over 26.5 Points - (-115 at Polymarket). Wembanyama has scored at least 30 points in two games this series and remains the focal point of San Antonio's offense.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Over 7.5 Assists - (-105 at Polymarket). San Antonio's aggressive traps continue forcing Gilgeous-Alexander into playmaking opportunities instead of isolation scoring.
- De'Aaron Fox: Over 5.5 Assists - (-110 at Polymarket). Fox recorded five assists with zero turnovers in Game 4 while helping the Spurs control tempo.
- Chet Holmgren: Over 7.5 Rebounds - (-102 at Polymarket). Holmgren should see heavier rebounding volume after Oklahoma City lost the battle on the boards badly in the last game.
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Same Game Parlay for Spurs vs Thunder
This same game parlay leans into a physical playoff matchup led by the stars. A slower pace keeps San Antonio close while still giving top scorers room to hit their numbers.
- Leg 1: Under 215.5. Defensive intensity has increased throughout the series, especially in halfcourt possessions.
- Leg 2: Victor Wembanyama Over 26.5 Points. Oklahoma City still lacks a consistent answer for Wembanyama near the basket.
- Leg 3: Spurs +5.5. San Antonio's rebounding advantage keeps games close late.
- Leg 4: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 Assists. The Spurs continue forcing the ball out of Gilgeous-Alexander's hands.
Game Total Pick
The Under 215.5 is the best total on the board. Game 4 finished with just 185 points, and both defenses are locked in on each other's primary actions. Oklahoma City also failed to reach 93 points for the first time all season.
The slower pace points back to the Under in Game 5. San Antonio is protecting the ball better with De'Aaron Fox healthy, while Oklahoma City's halfcourt offense loses punch when early threes are not falling. Bettors searching for more playoff bonuses can review current sports betting promo codes before placing wagers.
Pick: Under 215.5 - (-110 at Polymarket).
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Final Takeaways
San Antonio's biggest edge still comes through Wembanyama, as Oklahoma City continues struggling to defend his size and scoring around the basket. The Under 215.5 and Spurs +5.5 also fit the defensive style that has shaped the last two games of the series.
All odds as of 3:30 PM ET on May 25, 2026. Odds sourced from Polymarket. Check the latest odds and line movement for Spurs vs Thunder at betting.net before placing your bets.