The Padres are the clear moneyline side at -144, and the pitching matchup gives San Diego the strongest edge. Casey Mize enters with a 3.18 ERA and 95 strikeouts, while Dean Kremer carries a 5.40 ERA and 53 strikeouts for Minnesota. The Twins also arrive after producing only 2 hits in Friday's 6-2 series-opening loss.
San Diego's home record adds another layer at 38-26, compared with Minnesota's 28-35 road mark. The Padres also enter this game at 69-60 and have gone 7-3 recently, while the Twins sit at 63-66.
Twins vs Padres Game Preview
Minnesota has gone 63-66 overall and owns a 28-35 road record, with its offense limited to 2 hits in the series opener. Austin Martin remains on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain, while starting pitcher Joe Ryan is sidelined with a mild left glute strain and recently completed a 25-pitch bullpen session.
TWINS vs. PADRES: Official Full Game Highlights (August 21) | 2026 MLB Season
San Diego is 69-60 and 38-26 at Petco Park, with a 7-3 stretch entering Saturday's game. Xander Bogaerts is day-to-day after a right hamstring issue but played Friday, while Samad Taylor remains on the injured list with a right oblique strain and has started a rehab assignment.
The pitching matchup is the main situational factor. Kremer has a 2-4 record and 5.40 ERA, while Mize is 5-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 95 strikeouts. The game also starts at 8:40 p.m. ET with clear skies, temperatures near 76°F, and west-northwest winds of 6-8 mph.
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Moneyline Pick
Padres ML is the pick at -144. Mize's 3.18 ERA is the biggest pitching advantage in this matchup, while Kremer enters with a 5.40 ERA and has allowed a much higher run rate over his 2026 workload. San Diego also owns a 38-26 home record at Petco Park.
The Padres are priced at 61¢ in the Polymarket game-winner market, almost matching the implied probability behind the DraftKings moneyline. San Diego's 69-60 record and 7-3 recent run support the home side, while Minnesota's 63-66 record and 28-35 road mark leave less room for error.
Pick:
Padres ML (-144 at DraftKings).
Run Line Pick
Padres -1.5 is the run line side. DraftKings lists San Diego at +163 on the -1.5 line, giving the home team a plus-money price despite its 38-26 home record and the sizable 3.18-to-5.40 ERA advantage in the starting pitching matchup.
The Padres won Friday's opener 6-2, a 4-run margin, while Minnesota's offense managed only 2 hits. The +163 price also compares favorably with the Polymarket Padres -1.5 contract at 42¢.
Pick:
Padres -1.5 (+163 at DraftKings).
Best Player Prop
- Casey Mize strikeouts Over 5.5 (-105 at DraftKings).
Mize has recorded 95 strikeouts this season and brings a 3.18 ERA into a matchup against a Minnesota team that produced only 2 hits Friday. His 95-strikeout total gives him the profile to clear 5.5 against a Twins lineup that has struggled to generate offense in this series.
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Game Total Pick
Under 9 is the pick. Mize's 3.18 ERA gives San Diego a strong run-prevention foundation, while the game-time forecast calls for clear skies and a west-northwest wind of only 6-8 mph. Those conditions do not provide a major weather push toward a high-scoring game.
The biggest concern for an Under ticket is Kremer's 5.40 ERA, which gives Minnesota's side of the matchup a clear path to scoring. Still, the Twins were held to 2 hits and 2 runs Friday, and San Diego has the stronger starter in Mize. DraftKings has the total at 9 runs with both sides priced at -110.
Pick:
Under 9 (-110 at DraftKings).
Best Trades for Twins vs Padres
Prediction market prices give San Diego a narrow edge over the DraftKings moneyline while also showing a modest lean toward a lower-scoring game. The strongest contracts focus on the
Padres' home advantage, the pitching matchup, and the first-inning scoring probability.
- Twins vs Padres game winner:
YES on Padres at 61¢ on Polymarket. San Diego is 38-26 at home and 69-60 overall, while Mize owns a 3.18 ERA compared with Kremer's 5.40 ERA. The 61¢ price also closely matches the probability implied by the -144 DraftKings moneyline.
- Run total 8.5:
NO on Over 8.5 at 52¢ on Polymarket. Mize's 3.18 ERA and Minnesota's 2-hit performance in Friday's opener support a lower scoring outcome. The market price gives the Under side a 52% implied probability.
- Run in the first inning:
NO at 57¢ on Polymarket. Minnesota managed only 2 hits in the series opener, while Mize enters with a 3.18 ERA. The 57¢ price makes a scoreless first inning the more likely outcome in the market.
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How to Watch Twins vs Padres and Game Info
- Location:
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Date:
Saturday, August 22, 2026
- First pitch:
8:40 p.m. ET
- TV:
Padres.TV Presented by UC San Diego Health, KFMB 8.1 (CBS), TV Azteca; Twins.TV Presented by Progressive.
- Twins starting pitcher:
Kremer (2-4, 5.40 ERA).
- Padres starting pitcher:
Mize (5-7, 3.18 ERA).
- Weather forecast:
76°F, clear skies, west-northwest wind at 6-8 mph.
Final Takeaways
The Padres are the strongest side because San Diego combines a 38-26 home record with the better starting pitcher in Mize, who owns a 3.18 ERA and 95 strikeouts. Minnesota's Kremer enters with a 5.40 ERA, while the Twins managed only 2 hits in Friday's opener. The preferred moneyline is Padres ML at -144, with Padres -1.5 at +163 as the more aggressive alternative. The total stays on the Under 9 because Mize and Minnesota's recent offensive output provide the clearest path to a lower-scoring game.
Check the
latest odds and line movement
for Twins vs Padres at betting.net
before placing your bets. All odds as of 1:40 a.m. ET on August 22, 2026. Odds sourced from DraftKings.
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