The betting angle starts with the pitching matchup. Cincinnati sends Chase Burns (12-1, 2.40 ERA, 128 strikeouts) to the mound against Mitch Keller (6-7, 4.83 ERA), giving the Reds a clear edge with one of the hottest starters in baseball.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Cincinnati as a slight moneyline favorite despite both teams entering Sunday's series finale below 0.500. Rain and thunderstorm threats at Great American Ball Park also put added focus on bullpen management if weather delays shorten the outing for either starter.
Pirates vs Reds Game Preview
Pittsburgh enters the finale at 55-56 after dropping the opening games of the series. The Pirates continue to battle injuries, with Ryan O'Hearn landing on the 10-day injured list because of a strained left quad, while Oneil Cruz remains on the 60-day IL. Rafael Flores Jr. was activated ahead of Sunday's game, giving the lineup a needed boost.
PIRATES vs. REDS: Official Full Game Highlights (July 31) | 2026 MLB Season
The Reds sit at 52-57 but have won the first two games of the series after victories of 3-2 and 8-7. Chase Burns has been Cincinnati's most reliable arm all season, posting a 2.40 ERA with 128 strikeouts while allowing opponents very little hard contact through his first 13 decisions.
Weather is another storyline entering Sunday's matchup. Forecasts call for temperatures around 75 degrees with widespread showers and thunderstorms after severe weather affected the previous night's game. Another delay would increase the importance of bullpen depth and in-game pitching decisions.
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Moneyline Pick
Take the Reds moneyline. Chase Burns gives Cincinnati the biggest advantage on the board. His 2.40 ERA and 12-1 record stand in sharp contrast to Mitch Keller's 4.83 ERA, and Burns has piled up 128 strikeouts while consistently pitching deep into games. Pittsburgh also enters this matchup without Ryan O'Hearn and continues to miss Oneil Cruz, limiting the lineup's run-producing potential.
The Reds have already taken the first two games of the series and have executed better in late innings. Even if weather limits Burns' workload, Cincinnati enters the finale with momentum and the stronger starting pitcher.
Pick:
Reds ML (-118 at DraftKings).
Run Line Pick
Take the Reds -1.5. The plus-money return adds value behind Cincinnati's pitching edge. Burns has regularly kept opposing offenses quiet, while Keller has allowed more traffic with a 4.83 ERA. Pittsburgh's lineup is missing several key contributors, and Cincinnati has already shown it can capitalize late in games during this series.
Burns also gives Cincinnati a better chance to create separation if this game stays close through the middle innings. He has gone 12-1 while limiting big innings throughout the season, allowing the Reds to play with a lead more often than not. With Pittsburgh still adjusting to multiple lineup changes because of injuries, Cincinnati is in a strong position to win by more than one run if Burns delivers another quality start.
Pick:
Reds -1.5 (+135 at DraftKings).
Best Player Prop
- Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115 at DraftKings).
Burns has recorded 128 strikeouts this season and faces a
Pirates lineup missing
key hitters, including Oneil Cruz. If he works six or more innings before any weather interruption, his swing-and-miss ability puts this number within reach.
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Game Total Pick
Take Under 10. Burns is the biggest reason to back the Under. His 2.40 ERA has anchored Cincinnati's rotation all season, and Pittsburgh enters the game without several impact bats after Ryan O'Hearn joined Oneil Cruz on the injured list. While Keller's 4.83 ERA is less encouraging, he has generally kept the Pirates competitive when limiting free passes.
Weather also supports a lower-scoring game. Forecasts call for temperatures in the mid-70s with heavy clouds, showers, and thunderstorms around Great American Ball Park. Delays often disrupt offensive rhythm, and both clubs may lean more heavily on their bullpens if the game is interrupted.
Pick:
Under 10 (-102 at DraftKings).
Best Trades for Pirates vs Reds
Prediction markets see Cincinnati as the favorite entering Sunday's finale, but there are still several contracts that stand out based on the pitching matchup and current market pricing.
- Game Winner:
YES on Reds at 58¢ on Polymarket. Chase Burns' 12-1 record and 2.40 ERA justify Cincinnati's status as the favorite, especially against an injury-hit Pirates lineup.
- Total Runs Under 8.5:
YES at 53¢ on Polymarket. Burns' consistency and weather concerns create a reasonable path toward a lower-scoring contest despite the hitter-friendly ballpark.
- Will there be a run in the first inning?:
NO at 54¢ on Polymarket. Burns has consistently settled into games quickly, and Keller has generally been strongest during his first trip through opposing lineups.
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How to Watch Pirates vs Reds and Game Info
- Location:
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Date:
Sunday, August 2, 2026
- First pitch:
1:40 p.m. ET
- TV:
Reds.TV, SportsNet Pittsburgh
- Pirates starting pitcher:
Mitch Keller (6-7, 4.83 ERA).
- Reds starting pitcher:
Chase Burns (12-1, 2.40 ERA).
- Weather forecast:
75°F, cloudy with widespread showers and thunderstorms, high humidity, delay risk.
Final Takeaways
The strongest angle in this matchup remains Cincinnati's advantage on the mound. Chase Burns has been one of baseball's most dependable starters, and Pittsburgh enters the finale with key injuries that weaken its lineup. The Reds are the preferred side on both the moneyline and run line, while the Under also benefits from Burns' form and the expected weather conditions.
Check the
latest odds and line movement
for Pirates vs. Reds at betting.net
before placing your bets. All odds as of 11:00 p.m. ET on August 1. Odds sourced from DraftKings.
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