Giants at Mets Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
Jesse M. Cox Published 04/09/2026
The New York Mets are the clear betting side against the San Francisco Giants on September 4. New York has the biggest starting-pitching edge, with Nolan McLean entering at 10-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 172 strikeouts compared with Matt Wilkinson's 0-2 record and 4.63 ERA. DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mets between -180 and -188 on the moneyline, while San Francisco sits between +158 and +180.
The Giants are also 25-47 on the road, while several key bats are missing from the lineup. With the Mets at Citi Field and McLean on the mound, the home team has the cleaner path to a win.
Giants vs Mets Game Preview
San Francisco enters at 58-83 and has dealt with major lineup losses during the final month of the season. Willy Adames is on the 10-day IL with a strained left elbow, while Harrison Bader is on the 60-day IL with plantar fasciitis and Victor Bericoto is sidelined by a knee bone bruise. Rafael Devers remains the key offensive threat, with 32 home runs and 83 RBIs, but the Giants' 25-47 road mark shows how difficult this team has been away from home.
Mets vs. Giants Game Highlights (4/3/26) | MLB Highlights
The Mets are 63-77 and also have several important absences. Jorge Polanco underwent season-ending ankle surgery on August 26, while relievers Devin Williams and Cionel Pérez remain on the IL. Tylor Megill and Reed Garrett are out for the season after Tommy John surgeries, leaving New York without several pieces of its pitching depth.
The starting-pitching matchup heavily favors New York. McLean brings a 3.06 ERA and 172 strikeouts into the game, while Wilkinson has a 4.63 ERA and only 6 strikeouts listed in the supplied data. The game is also scheduled for Citi Field at 7:10 p.m. ET with temperatures around 80.5°F, partly cloudy skies and an easterly wind of 8.1 mph.
Moneyline Pick
The Mets are the moneyline pick. McLean's 3.06 ERA and 172 strikeouts give New York a substantial advantage over Wilkinson, who enters at 0-2 with a 4.63 ERA. The Giants' 25-47 road record adds another strong situational edge for the home side.
DraftKings Sportsbook has New York priced between -180 and -188, with San Francisco between +158 and +180. The Mets deserve the favorite price because the starting-pitcher gap is significant, and Citi Field removes the Giants from a road environment where they have struggled throughout the season.
Pick: Mets ML (-180 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
Run Line Pick
The Mets -1.5 is the run line pick at +113. McLean's 3.06 ERA and 172 strikeouts give New York the starting-pitching advantage needed to create separation, while the Giants' depleted lineup is missing Adames, Bader and Bericoto.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mets -1.5 at +113, a price that offers more upside than the moneyline. San Francisco's 25-47 road record supports taking New York to win by at least two runs.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (+113 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
Best Player Prop
- Nolan McLean strikeouts Over 5.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook). McLean has recorded 172 strikeouts entering this matchup and owns a 3.06 ERA across his season workload. Wilkinson's 6 listed strikeouts also underline the wide gap in the supplied starting-pitcher production, making McLean's strikeout market the strongest individual prop angle.
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Game Total Pick
The pick is Over 8.5 runs. The total is set at 8.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Over priced at -119 and the Under at -101. Wilkinson enters with a 4.63 ERA, giving the Giants a vulnerable starting-pitching profile against a Mets lineup playing at home.
McLean's 3.06 ERA works against the Over, but New York's pitching injuries create less certainty once the game moves beyond its starter. Devin Williams and Cionel Pérez are both on the IL, while Megill and Garrett are out for the season, leaving the Mets without several established arms. The 80.5°F temperature and 8.1 mph easterly wind at Citi Field also provide a favorable environment for offense compared with a cooler September night.
San Francisco's depleted roster is a concern for the Over, but the Giants still have Devers, who has 32 homers and 83 RBIs. A 4.63 ERA from Wilkinson puts pressure on the Mets to do most of the scoring, and New York has the stronger lineup and home-field setting to attack that matchup.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-119 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
How to Watch Giants vs Mets and Game Info
- Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
- Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- TV: WPIX, NBCS BA
- Giants starting pitcher: Matt Wilkinson (0-2, 4.63 ERA).
- Mets starting pitcher: Nolan McLean (10-8, 3.06 ERA).
- Weather forecast: 80.5°F, partially cloudy, east wind at 8.1 mph.
Final Takeaways
The Mets are the strongest side because McLean gives New York a major starting-pitching edge over Wilkinson. New York's home-field advantage also matters against a Giants team that is 25-47 on the road, while San Francisco enters with several key position players unavailable. The preferred bet is Mets -1.5 at +113, while the Over 8.5 at -119 offers a second angle because Wilkinson's 4.63 ERA puts pressure on the Giants to keep pace.
Check the latest odds and line movement for Giants vs Mets at betting.net before placing your bets. All odds as of 3:41 a.m. ET on September 4, 2026. Odds sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook.