Chicago Cubs at New York Mets Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
Jesse M. Cox Published 25/06/2026
The betting angle in Thursday night's matchup starts with the starting pitching. Chicago hands the ball to veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd, while New York counters with Freddy Peralta, one of the league's most reliable strikeout pitchers. The total sits at 8.5 runs, and the Cubs enter as -150 favorites at DraftKings.
Chicago also brings the stronger offense into Citi Field. The Cubs rank eighth in MLB with 4.8 runs per game and own a 0.338 team OBP, while the Mets rank 26th in scoring at 4.06 runs per contest and continue to deal with key injuries throughout the lineup.
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Game Preview
Chicago enters this game with a 41-37 record and has produced 375 runs through 78 games. The Cubs have collected 647 hits, 121 doubles, and 92 home runs while posting a 0.244 team batting average. Their defense has also been a strength, ranking second in baseball with a 72.4% defensive efficiency rate.
CUBS vs. METS Gm1 Full Game Highlights (6/24/26) | MLB Highlights
New York comes into the matchup at 34-44 and has struggled offensively for much of the season. The Mets own a 0.231 team batting average and 0.298 OBP, both among the weaker marks in the National League. Injuries to Francisco Lindor and Luis Robert Jr. have further reduced lineup depth around Juan Soto.
The pitching matchup features two experienced veterans. Boyd owns a 4.61 career ERA across more than 1,100 innings, while Peralta enters with a career 3.69 ERA and 1,236 strikeouts in just over 1,000 innings. Bullpen reliability could become a factor late, as Chicago has converted only 11 saves while blowing 12 opportunities this season.
Moneyline Pick
Take the Cubs moneyline. Chicago owns the better overall offensive profile and holds significant advantages in on-base percentage, run production, and defensive efficiency. The Cubs average 4.8 runs per game compared to New York's 4.06 and have scored 58 more runs than the Mets this season.
The injury situation also favors Chicago. New York remains without several key contributors, including Francisco Lindor, while Chicago continues to receive steady production throughout the lineup. Even though Peralta has the stronger career numbers, the Cubs' deeper offense gives them more paths to victory over nine innings.
Pick: Cubs ML (-150 at DraftKings).
Run Line Pick
Take the Cubs -1.5. Chicago's offense has enough firepower to create separation against a Mets lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in batting average and on-base percentage. The Cubs have 121 doubles and 92 home runs this season, while New York has scored fewer than 4.1 runs per game. If Chicago gets an early lead, the matchup strongly favors a multi-run victory.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+105 at DraftKings).
Best Player Prop
- Freddy Peralta Strikeouts Over 6.5 (-115 at DraftKings). Peralta has recorded 1,236 strikeouts across 1,016 career innings and continues to miss bats at an elite rate. Chicago hitters have struck out 645 times this season, creating a favorable matchup for Peralta's strikeout prop.
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Game Total Pick
Under 8.5 runs. Peralta's presence is the biggest reason to back the Under. His career 3.69 ERA and 1.154 WHIP remain among the better marks for active starters, and he has consistently limited hard contact while generating strikeouts.
Chicago's offense is capable of putting up runs, but Citi Field generally plays more neutrally than many National League parks. The Mets also enter the game with a weakened lineup due to injuries, and their 0.231 batting average suggests scoring opportunities may be limited against Boyd and Chicago's defense.
New York's pitching staff owns a respectable 4.14 team ERA and ranks seventh in baseball in hits allowed. With both starters capable of working deep into the game, this matchup profiles as a lower-scoring contest than the posted total suggests.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 at DraftKings).
Best Trades for Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets
Prediction market traders have a different set of opportunities in this matchup. Current market pricing remains tight despite Chicago entering as the stronger team on paper.
- Cubs to Win Game: YES at 50¢ on Polymarket. Chicago owns the better offensive numbers, stronger defense, and enters with the superior overall run profile despite being priced nearly even with New York.
- Mets to Win Game: NO at 51¢ on Polymarket. New York continues to deal with injuries to Francisco Lindor and Luis Robert Jr., while the offense ranks 26th in MLB at 4.06 runs per game.
- Total Runs Under 8.5: YES at market pricing on Kalshi. Peralta's strikeout ability and New York's offensive struggles support a lower-scoring environment at Citi Field.
How to Watch Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets and Game Info
- Location: Citi Field, Queens, New York
- Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- TV: Sportsnet New York
- Chicago Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd (62-78 career record, 4.61 career ERA).
- New York Mets starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta (75-48 career record, 3.69 career ERA).
- Weather forecast: TBD
For bettors comparing markets before first pitch, reviewing a trusted sports betting app can help track movement across multiple books. Additional sportsbook comparisons are available.
Final Takeaways
The strongest angle in this matchup is backing Chicago behind the league's more productive offense and stronger overall team profile. The Cubs hold clear advantages in scoring, on-base percentage, and defensive efficiency. Peralta should keep the game competitive early, but Chicago's lineup depth gives the visitors the edge over nine innings. The Under 8.5 also benefits from a strong pitching matchup and a weakened Mets offense.
Check the latest odds and line movement for Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets at betting.net before placing your bets. All odds as of 12:00 PM ET on June 25, 2026. Odds sourced from DraftKings.