Braves at Twins Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
David Genge Published 17/08/2026
The Atlanta Braves enter Target Field as -160 moneyline favorites at DraftKings, with the biggest edge coming from the starting pitching matchup. Atlanta sends Martín Pérez to the mound with an 8-6 record and 2.96 ERA, while Minnesota counters with Bailey Ober, who is 7-4 with a 4.64 ERA.
The Braves also hold a 74-50 record against Minnesota's 60-65 mark, but the pitching matchup is the cleaner angle. Atlanta's injury list includes Reynaldo López, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach, while Minnesota is without Joe Ryan, Pablo López and several other pitchers.
Braves vs Twins Game Preview
Atlanta brings a 74-50 record into Monday's series opener and has Pérez making the start. The left-hander has a 2.96 ERA and 80 strikeouts across his season workload, giving the Braves a clear starting-pitcher advantage over Minnesota's Ober, who owns a 4.64 ERA and 67 strikeouts.
Twins vs. Braves Game Highlights (4/20/25) | MLB Highlights
Minnesota is 60-65 and will face Pérez without Joe Ryan, who is on the 15-day IL with a glute injury. The Braves are also dealing with several pitching absences, including López with a knee issue, Strider and Schwellenbach with elbow injuries, and José Jiménez with a knee issue.
The game moves to Target Field for a 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch, with temperatures expected to sit between 72°F and 80°F and only a 5% chance of rain. Winds are expected around 7 mph, creating mild conditions without a major weather factor for the August 17 matchup.
Moneyline Pick
Braves ML is the side to take at -160 at DraftKings. Pérez's 2.96 ERA gives Atlanta the better starting-pitching profile, while the Braves enter at 74-50 compared with Minnesota's 60-65 record.
Atlanta's edge is also reflected in the prediction market, where the Braves are priced at 54¢ on Polymarket compared with 47¢ for the Twins. The DraftKings price requires Atlanta to win at a stronger rate than that market projection, but the starting-pitching gap keeps the Braves on top of the moneyline.
Pick: Braves ML (-160 at DraftKings).
Run Line Pick
Braves -1.5 (+140) is the preferred run line at DraftKings. Atlanta gets Pérez's 2.96 ERA against Ober's 4.64 ERA, and the +140 price gives the favorite a better payout than its -160 moneyline.
Polymarket has the Braves -1.5 at 42¢, showing that traders assign a lower probability to Atlanta winning by multiple runs than simply winning the game. The run line therefore carries more variance than the moneyline, but +140 provides a clear price difference.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+140 at DraftKings).
Best Player Prop
- Martín Pérez strikeouts Over TBD (TBD at DraftKings). Pérez has recorded 80 strikeouts this season while carrying a 2.96 ERA. Minnesota's lineup will face a left-handed starter without Joe Ryan available to offset the pitching matchup, making Pérez's strikeout market the preferred player prop once the DraftKings line is confirmed.
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Game Total Pick
Under 8 is the total pick. Pérez brings a 2.96 ERA into the game, and Minnesota's offense must deal with a left-handed starter while several Twins pitchers remain on the IL, including Joe Ryan and Pablo López. The Braves' 74-50 record also reflects a team that has consistently separated itself from Minnesota's 60-65 mark.
The weather does not provide a strong push toward offense, with temperatures between 72°F and 80°F, a 5% rain chance and winds around 7 mph at Target Field. The main concern for the Under is the bullpen situation, as both clubs have multiple pitchers on the IL, but the starting matchup favors a lower-scoring game.
Pick: Under 8 (TBD at DraftKings).
Best Trades for Braves vs Twins
Prediction market prices give a different view of the game than the DraftKings board. Polymarket has Atlanta at 54¢ to win, while the Twins sit at 47¢, and the market also prices the 9.5-run threshold separately from the sportsbook total of 8.
- Braves to win: YES at 54¢ on Polymarket. Pérez has a 2.96 ERA against Ober's 4.64 ERA, giving Atlanta the stronger starting-pitching profile despite its road status.
- Run total over 9.5: NO at 55¢ on Polymarket. DraftKings lists the game total at 8, while Pérez's 2.96 ERA and the mild 7 mph wind at Target Field support a lower scoring range.
- Run in the first inning: YES at 55¢ on Polymarket. The market assigns a 55% probability to a first-inning run, while Atlanta's 74-50 record and Minnesota's 60-65 mark point to a meaningful offensive gap between the teams.
How to Watch Braves vs Twins and Game Info
- Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
- Date: Monday, August 17, 2026
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- TV: Twins.TV Presented by Progressive, BravesVision.
- Braves starting pitcher: Martín Pérez (8-6, 2.96 ERA).
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.64 ERA).
- Weather forecast: 72°F to 80°F, clear and pleasant, wind around 7 mph.
Final Takeaways
The Braves are the clear side based on the starting pitching matchup, with Martín Pérez carrying a 2.96 ERA against Bailey Ober's 4.64 ERA. Atlanta's -160 moneyline is the safer position, while the +140 run line offers a larger return but requires a win by at least two runs. The Under 8 also fits the strongest pitching and weather factors, with mild conditions and no strong wind advantage for hitters.
Check the latest odds and line movement for Braves vs Twins at betting.net before placing your bets.