Top 3 NFL Games to Bet on This Sunday: Saints, Bengals and Panthers Lead the Week 9 Picks

My three NFL picks for Sunday, November 8, are Saints -3 against the Browns, Bengals -3 against the Falcons, and Panthers +2.5 against the Broncos. Cincinnati is my strongest play. New Orleans has a chance to take advantage of a quarterback change, and Carolina is my pick to pull off the home upset.

At these spreads, the Saints and Bengals each need to win by four or more to cover. A three-point win is a push. Carolina covers with a win, a tie, or a loss by one or two. A Denver field goal at the buzzer would be enough to beat the spread.

1. New Orleans Saints -3 Over the Cleveland Browns

The Saints are 2–5 and scored only 10 points against Pittsburgh before their bye. There’s no reason to expect an offensive explosion against Cleveland. The case for New Orleans is that it had extra time to prepare and will face a Browns offense averaging just 17.4 points per game. Cleveland announced that Shedeur Sanders will make his first start of the season as Deshaun Watson remains in concussion protocol.

I want to see New Orleans win first down defensively. If Cleveland can run the ball and leave Sanders with short throws on third down, the Browns can keep the crowd quiet and make this a game of field position. The Saints have allowed 139.4 rushing yards per game, so stopping the run is an assignment they have to prove they can handle. If they do, they can make Sanders work through longer reads with the crowd behind them.

On offense, New Orleans needs to test Cleveland between the tackles and stay out of obvious passing situations. Cleveland entered the week sixth in passing yards allowed per game and spent part of its preparation addressing problems against interior runs. New Orleans has averaged only 86 rushing yards, so even a handful of productive carries could change what it can call on third down.

The pick: Saints -3 Predicted score: Saints 23, Browns 17

2. Cincinnati Bengals -3 Over the Atlanta Falcons

Cincinnati takes a three-game winning streak to Madrid, where it faces Atlanta at the Santiago Bernabéu at 9:30 a.m. ET. Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdowns against Tennessee last week, then ran in the winner in overtime. The Bengals have two receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins who can make Atlanta pay for giving either one too much room.

Burrow also threw three interceptions in that game. That’s the part Cincinnati can’t afford to repeat. Atlanta’s interior pressure can wreck a possession even when the tackles do their jobs. I’d use quick throws to Chase and Higgins early, then take a shot when Atlanta’s safeties start closing on the shorter routes. Cincinnati has the better passing attack in this matchup; it needs to keep Burrow out of situations where he feels compelled to make the difficult throw.

Atlanta’s best answer is Bijan Robinson. If he keeps the Falcons in second-and-five, they can dictate the pace and limit Burrow’s possessions. The Bengals need to tackle cleanly on early downs and make Atlanta convert obvious passing situations. The Falcons were shut out 16–0 by Tampa Bay last week, and I trust Cincinnati to finish more drives if this game turns into a contest between the two passing offenses.

The pick: Bengals -3 Predicted score: Bengals 31, Falcons 24

3. Carolina Panthers +2.5 Over the Denver Broncos

Denver comes to Charlotte at 6–2 after beating Kansas City, while Carolina is 3–4 and coming off a loss to Green Bay. The matchup that can sink this pick is up front: Bryce Young took six sacks against the Packers, and Denver’s defense is a tough opponent for an offense trying to fix its protection. Carolina listed Young as a full participant on its estimated Wednesday injury report despite an ankle issue.

I’d give Young quick decisions and keep the run in the plan even if it takes a few series to get going. A five-yard completion on first down is valuable here because it keeps Denver from sending its rushers straight upfield on the next snap. When Carolina gets inside the 20, it needs to finish with touchdowns. Denver’s red-zone defense is one of the reasons the Broncos can win even when their offense leaves points on the field.

I expect Carolina to make this a game in the fourth quarter. The Panthers need one defensive stop late and a final possession where Young can play for a field goal. At +2.5, I’m picking the upset because a three-point Denver win offers no protection.

The pick: Panthers +2.5 Predicted score: Panthers 23, Broncos 20

This Week’s Final Betting Card

Saints -3, Bengals -3, and Panthers +2.5. Cincinnati is my strongest play, New Orleans has the edge coming off its bye, and Carolina is my home upset pick.