Top 3 NFL Games to Bet on Today: Raiders, Bears and 49ers Lead the Week 5 Picks

Sunday’s NFL schedule offers two appealing underdogs and a short road favorite. My three selections for October 11 are Raiders +3.5 against the Patriots, Bears -1.5 against the Packers, and 49ers +3.5 against the Seahawks.

The reasoning differs for each matchup. Las Vegas has an opportunity to attack an injury-depleted New England secondary. Chicago brings a productive offense and improving defense into Lambeau Field. San Francisco gets more than a field goal in a divisional matchup where its offensive talent gives it a credible chance to win.

These picks use the exact spreads supplied for this article. The half-points matter: Las Vegas and San Francisco can cover with three-point losses, while Chicago needs a victory by at least two.

1. Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 Over the New England Patriots

The Raiders are my top selection because we are getting more than a field goal with a team that has demonstrated legitimate offensive production. Las Vegas enters at 3–1, while New England is 2–2. Through four games, the Raiders averaged 28.8 points and 250 passing yards, compared with the Patriots’ 16.3 points per game.

Those numbers do not guarantee anything, but they establish why Las Vegas deserves consideration beyond its underdog label. The Raiders have shown they can generate enough offense to remain competitive without requiring their defense to deliver a near-perfect afternoon.

New England’s injury situation strengthens that case. Starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III have been ruled out, along with reserve corners Karon Prunty and Channing Canada. That creates a significant coverage challenge against an offense capable of moving the ball through the air.

My expectation is that Las Vegas will test those replacements early. Efficient completions can keep the Raiders out of long-yardage situations and prevent New England from dictating the game through pressure. Sustained drives would also help limit Drake Maye’s opportunities.

Maye is the biggest threat to this pick. He threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns while adding 54 rushing yards in New England’s victory over Buffalo. Las Vegas must contain his scrambling without surrendering easy throws behind defenders who abandon coverage.

There is also uncertainty surrounding Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty, who was listed as questionable with ankle and foot injuries. A reduced rushing threat could make the offense easier to anticipate.

Even with those concerns, +3.5 gives us useful protection. New England can win a close game by a field goal and the Raiders still cover. I believe Las Vegas has enough passing offense to do better than that and leave Foxborough with an outright victory.

The pick: Raiders +3.5 Predicted score: Raiders 27, Patriots 24

2. Chicago Bears -1.5 Over the Green Bay Packers

Chicago’s case starts with how effectively Ben Johnson’s offense has operated despite quarterback injuries. The Bears enter at 3–1, and their latest team preview has Tyson Bagent slated to make his second consecutive start in place of Caleb Williams.

Against the Jets, Bagent completed 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards in a 23–12 victory. Chicago generated 492 yards and 34 first downs while possessing the ball for 42:45. That was meaningful offensive execution, even if the scoring total left room for improvement.

That performance supports the idea that Chicago can win through the structure of its offense. Bagent does not need to produce an endless stream of difficult throws. He needs to distribute accurately, recognize available completions, and avoid giving Green Bay short fields.

The Bears will be without leading rusher Kyle Monangai because of a toe injury. That puts additional responsibility on D’Andre Swift and makes it unreasonable to expect Chicago’s running game to operate completely unchanged.

Still, I like Johnson’s ability to adjust. My expectation is a balanced approach that combines the available running game with quick throws and selective downfield opportunities. Chicago should make Green Bay defend full possessions rather than chase explosive plays unnecessarily.

The defensive matchup is equally important. The Bears have held their past three opponents to a combined 28 points. Their season third-down defense ranks second at 23.7 percent, giving them a clear route to controlling possession again.

Jordan Love remains capable of disrupting that plan. If Chicago allows him clean pockets and comfortable timing, Green Bay can create explosive gains quickly. The Bears need disciplined coverage alongside pressure that prevents Love from settling into rhythm.

At -1.5, Chicago does not need a dominant road performance. A three-point win covers, and I expect its ability to sustain drives and earn defensive stops to produce that margin.

The pick: Bears -1.5 Predicted score: Bears 24, Packers 20

3. San Francisco 49ers +3.5 Over the Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco is attractive because the number gives us protection in a difficult road environment. Seattle deserves respect at Lumen Field, but taking +3.5 means the 49ers can lose by a field goal and still cover.

The injuries are substantial. Nick Bosa and Kyle Juszczyk have been ruled out, along with James Thompson Jr. and Marques Sigle. Bosa’s absence affects the pass rush, while losing Juszczyk requires adjustments to offensive personnel and blocking combinations.

There is encouraging news, too. Mike Evans entered the weekend without a game-status designation, while Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams returned to full practice participation Thursday and Friday. San Francisco retains important pieces for sustaining offense.

My expectation is that Kyle Shanahan will emphasize manageable situations for Brock Purdy. Productive early downs can reduce the effect of crowd noise and keep Seattle from attacking predictable passing situations.

McCaffrey’s versatility gives that approach flexibility. San Francisco can use him to create accessible completions, support the running game, and make defenders account for multiple possibilities before the snap.

Seattle’s path to a clear win is forcing mistakes and creating separation early. If the 49ers fall behind and become one-dimensional, the home-field advantage becomes more difficult to manage.

I expect a tighter finish. San Francisco has enough offensive options to stay within one possession, and the extra half-point above three is the reason I prefer taking the points.

The pick: 49ers +3.5 Predicted score: Seahawks 27, 49ers 24

Today’s Final Betting Card

My selections are Raiders +3.5, Bears -1.5, and 49ers +3.5. Las Vegas is my strongest play, Chicago is my preferred short favorite, and San Francisco offers an appealing cushion in a competitive divisional matchup.