Colts at Steelers Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
Jesse M. Cox Published 08/10/2026
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2.5-point home favorites against the Indianapolis Colts for Week 5, but the strongest betting angle starts with the schedule. Pittsburgh has had 10 days between games after its Thursday night matchup, while Indianapolis is returning from its London game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. FanDuel lists Pittsburgh -2.5 at -105, with the total at 44.5 points.
The quarterback matchup also gives bettors a clear split. Aaron Rodgers has 999 passing yards and seven touchdowns for Pittsburgh, while Daniel Jones has 754 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions for Indianapolis. Those numbers form the base for these NFL Picks, with the rest advantage adding another factor.
Colts vs Steelers Game Preview
Both teams enter at 2-2, but their recent betting form is different. Indianapolis is 3-1 against the spread through four games, while Pittsburgh is 2-2 ATS. Rodgers has completed 57.5% of his passes for 999 yards, while Jones has completed 63.6% for 754 yards, so the Colts have the better completion rate but the Steelers have the clear edge in passing production and touchdowns.
Indianapolis has Arden Key out, with Tanor Bortolini, Jaylon Carlies and Akeem Davis-Gaither also missing practice. Pittsburgh has Derek Harmon on IR, while Jamel Dean, Jalen Ramsey and Rico Dowdle were limited. The schedule favors Pittsburgh after extended rest, while Indianapolis returns from London. These NFL Picks, NFL predictions and Statistical analysis of NFL teams all favor Pittsburgh's rest advantage.
Colts vs Steelers Moneyline Pick
Take the Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline at -134 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Pittsburgh owns a +2 turnover differential compared with Indianapolis at -6, and the Steelers have already produced 4 interceptions against only 1 for the Colts. T.J. Watt also has 4.5 sacks and an interception, giving Pittsburgh a major defensive playmaker in a matchup against a quarterback who has thrown 4 interceptions.
The price is fair for a home favorite at this level because Pittsburgh has the rest advantage and the stronger turnover profile. Indianapolis has scored 25.5 points per game, but the Colts also rank 32nd with a -6 turnover differential, which gives Pittsburgh extra chances to control the game.
Pick: Steelers ML (-134 at FanDuel Sportsbook).
Against the Spread Pick
Take Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook. Pittsburgh has 10 sacks and 4 interceptions, compared with Indianapolis' 9 sacks and 1 interception, giving the Steelers a stronger path to short fields.
The 2.5-point spread stays below 3, while Pittsburgh averages 317.8 yards to Indianapolis' 284.3. Jaylen Warren also averages 5.6 yards per carry, supporting Pittsburgh's ability to control the game. These Trends in NFL team performance strengthen the spread case.
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Colts vs Steelers Game Total Pick
Take Under 44.5 at -118 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Colts average 25.5 points per game, but Pittsburgh averages only 19.2, creating a combined scoring average of 44.7 before accounting for the matchup itself. Indianapolis has also turned the ball over 4 more times than Pittsburgh on a per-team basis, while the Steelers have 10 sacks and 4 interceptions that can shorten drives.
The weather adds another small concern for the Over. Showers are forecast in Pittsburgh with temperatures reaching about 69°F, according to the supplied forecast. Indianapolis is also coming off a London game, while Pittsburgh has had extra preparation time, which points toward a controlled pace rather than a track meet. The latest NFL predictions should therefore lean toward fewer than 45 total points.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-118 at FanDuel Sportsbook).
How to Watch Colts vs Steelers and Game Info
- Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA.
- Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Indianapolis Colts starting quarterback: Daniel Jones (TBD, 754 yards, 3-4).
- Pittsburgh Steelers starting quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (TBD, 999 yards, 7-4).
- Weather forecast: Around 69°F, showers, wind direction and speed TBD.
Final Takeaways
The strongest betting angle is Pittsburgh's rest and turnover advantage against an Indianapolis team returning from London. The NFL Picks are Steelers ML at -134, Steelers -2.5 at -105 and Under 44.5 at -118, all at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Statistical analysis of NFL teams also supports Pittsburgh because the Steelers have 10 sacks, 4 interceptions and a +2 turnover differential compared with Indianapolis' 9 sacks, 1 interception and -6 turnover differential. These NFL predictions point to a Pittsburgh win by a narrow margin in a game that stays below the total.
All odds as of 10:08 p.m. ET on October 7, 2026. Odds sourced from FanDuel Sportsbook. Check the latest odds and line movement for Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers at betting.net before placing your bets.