Chiefs at Dolphins Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
The Kansas City Chiefs are 11.5-point road favorites against the Miami Dolphins for Week 3, with DraftKings listing Kansas City at -850 on the moneyline and the total at 45.5 points. The biggest betting angle is the massive offensive gap through two games, with Kansas City averaging 32 points and 457.5 yards per game while Miami is averaging just 13 points and 271.5 yards.
Patrick Mahomes has 566 yards, five TDs and one INT. Malik Willis has 417 yards, one TD and one INT, while Miami has zero sacks. Those numbers shape these NFL Picks.
Chiefs vs Dolphins Game Preview
Kansas City is 2-0 after a 33-30 OT win over Indianapolis, while Miami is 0-2 after losses to Jacksonville and San Francisco. The Chiefs are 1-1 ATS, Miami 0-2. Mahomes has 566 yards and five TDs at 63.5%, while Willis has 417 yards and one TD at 58%. These numbers shape the NFL Picks, NFL predictions, and Trends in NFL team performance.
The injury reports show concerns for both teams. Josh Simmons missed practice with a back injury, while Chris Jones, Felix Anudike-Uzomah and Chamarri Conner were limited. Miami had Caleb Douglas and Rob Beal Jr. miss practice, while Jalen Wright and Chris Bell were limited. Chop Robinson was a full participant after clearing concussion protocol.
The Chiefs also lead in time of possession at 35:21 per game versus Miami's 27:40. That gap gives the Chiefs more chances with an offense averaging 32 points and 457.5 yards, which is important for these NFL Picks, NFL predictions, and Trends in NFL team performance.
Chiefs vs Dolphins Moneyline Pick
Take the Kansas City Chiefs moneyline at -850 at DraftKings. Mahomes has five touchdown passes through two games, while Kansas City's offense ranks first in the league in total yards at 457.5 per game. Miami has produced only 271.5 yards per game and owns a 0-2 record.
The -850 price is expensive, so the moneyline is mainly useful for bettors who want Kansas City to win rather than lay 11.5 points. Miami's defense has two interceptions but zero sacks, while Kansas City has four sacks and a +2 turnover differential. Those Trends in NFL team performance support the Chiefs controlling the game without needing a huge margin.
Pick: Chiefs ML (-850 at DraftKings).
Against the Spread Pick
Take the Miami Dolphins +11.5 at -110 at DraftKings. The number gives Miami room to lose by 10 or fewer points. Kansas City is 1-1 ATS, while Miami is 0-2.
The 11.5-point spread is well past the key number of 7. Kansas City averages 32 points, but Miami allows 31, while the Chiefs' two wins have both been closer than 11.5 points. These Trends in NFL team performance give bettors using NFL Picks more room with Miami.
Pick: Dolphins +11.5 (-110 at DraftKings).
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
+9
- 20+ sports available for wagering
- Pre-match and in-play betting
- Unique features like live streaming and boosted odds
Bet $10 Get $365 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose
Find out more on bet365's website
- Over 20 sports
- Extensive betting markets
- Live betting feature
New Users – Get $250 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 5 days
+6
- Deep market coverage across major U.S. sports and leagues
- Same Game Parlay builder is fast and easy to use
- Live betting interface updates quickly with real-time odds
Chiefs vs Dolphins Game Total Pick
Take the Under 45.5 at -110 at DraftKings. Miami is averaging only 13 points per game and 271.5 yards, while the Dolphins have held the ball for just 27:40 per game. Kansas City is producing 32 points per game, but the expected game script gives Miami a difficult path to contributing enough points for an Over.
The weather forecast calls for mostly cloudy conditions around 84°F with high humidity and only a minimal rain chance. Miami's offense also has 0 defensive sacks to its credit, while Kansas City's four sacks and +2 turnover differential can create short possessions or extra Chiefs scoring opportunities without necessarily producing a high-scoring Miami response.
Pick: Under 45.5 (-110 at DraftKings).
How to Watch Chiefs vs Dolphins and Game Info
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
- Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Kansas City Chiefs starting quarterback: Patrick Mahomes (2-0, 566 yards, 5-1).
- Miami Dolphins starting quarterback: Malik Willis (0-2, 417 yards, 1-1).
- Weather forecast: 84°F, mostly cloudy.
Final Takeaways
Kansas City has the clear statistical edge, but the 11.5-point spread requires a much bigger win than the -850 moneyline price requires. The three NFL Picks are Chiefs ML at -850, Dolphins +11.5 at -110, and Under 45.5 at -110 at DraftKings. The NFL predictions center on Kansas City's offensive advantage, while the Trends in team performance support taking the large number with Miami and keeping the total below 45.5.
All odds as of 3:05 a.m. ET on September 24, 2026. Odds sourced from DraftKings. Check the latest odds and line movement for Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins at betting.net before placing your bets.