Cubs at D-Backs Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
David Genge Published 24/08/2026
The Chicago Cubs enter Chase Field as -145 moneyline favorites at DraftKings, with Kevin Gausman carrying a 4.58 ERA against Merrill Kelly's 5.37 mark. Chicago also owns the stronger 75-56 record, while Arizona sits at 69-62 and is missing key players including Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
The strongest angle is Chicago's starting-pitching edge and the Diamondbacks' lineup injuries. The Cubs are also +120 on the standard -1.5 run line at DraftKings, giving a $100 wager a $120 profit if Chicago wins by at least two runs.
Cubs vs D-Backs Game Preview
Chicago brings a 75-56 record into the series opener and holds second place in the NL Central. The Cubs are without Dansby Swanson, who is on the 10-day IL with an oblique injury, while Matt Shaw is also out with a hand injury. Gausman is listed as day-to-day with a hand issue but remains the announced starter after recording 143 strikeouts this season.
D-backs vs. Cubs Game Highlights (5/1/26) | MLB Highlights
Arizona enters at 69-62 and is also dealing with major lineup losses. Marte is on the 10-day IL with a knee injury, while Gurriel Jr. is out with an adductor issue and Tommy Troy is on the IL with a shoulder injury. Kelly has an 8-11 record and a 5.37 ERA, while the Diamondbacks also have rotation absences involving Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes.
The game starts at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field, where the outside temperature is expected to fall from a daytime high near 109°F to about 89°F by first pitch. Clear skies and virtually no chance of rain are expected, but the wind direction and speed were not provided, and the extreme Phoenix heat makes Chase Field's roof status a relevant game-day factor.
Moneyline Pick
Cubs ML is the pick at -145. Chicago has the better 75-56 record, while Gausman's 4.58 ERA gives the Cubs a stronger starting-pitching profile than Kelly's 5.37 ERA. Arizona is also missing Marte and Gurriel Jr., two important pieces of its lineup.
DraftKings (-145): A $145 wager on Chicago would generate $100 in profit if the Cubs win, returning $245 in total. Gausman has 143 strikeouts this season, giving Chicago a strong starting-pitching edge against an Arizona lineup affected by several injuries.
Pick: Cubs ML (-145 at DraftKings).
Run Line Pick
Cubs -1.5 is the run line pick at +120. The +120 price at DraftKings means a $100 wager would produce a $120 profit if Chicago wins by at least two runs. The pitching gap between Gausman's 4.58 ERA and Kelly's 5.37 ERA supports the Cubs creating separation.
Arizona's injury list includes Marte, Gurriel Jr. and several pitchers, while Kelly enters with a 5.37 ERA. Chicago's +120 run line price also offers a larger potential return than the -145 moneyline.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+120 at DraftKings).
Best Player Prop
- Kevin Gausman Strikeouts Over 5.5. Gausman has recorded 143 strikeouts this season, giving him a strong strikeout base heading into a matchup against an Arizona lineup missing Gurriel Jr and Marte. The available game data does not include the current DraftKings price for this prop.
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Game Total Pick
Over 9 is the pick at -120. The two announced starters enter with ERAs of 4.58 for Gausman and 5.37 for Kelly, giving both offenses a path to create runs. At DraftKings, the -120 price means a $120 wager would return $100 in profit if the game finishes with 10 or more runs.
Arizona's lineup injuries reduce its depth, but Kelly's 5.37 ERA gives Chicago an opportunity to produce early runs. The temperature is expected to be around 89°F at game time, while the total is set at 9 runs, making the starting-pitcher matchup the main driver of the Over position.
Pick: Over 9 (-120 at DraftKings).
Best Trades for Cubs vs D-Backs
Prediction markets offer a separate way to assess the Cubs-Diamondbacks matchup because share prices represent implied probabilities rather than traditional sportsbook prices. Polymarket currently gives Chicago a 57¢ share price and Arizona a 44¢ price, while the game-total market puts Over 9.5 at 46.1¢ and Under 9.5 at 54¢.
- Cubs to win: YES at 57¢ on Polymarket. A winning share pays $1, making the 57¢ entry price equivalent to a 57% implied probability. Chicago's 75-56 record, Gausman's 4.58 ERA and Arizona's injuries to Marte and Gurriel Jr. support Chicago's higher market probability.
- Game total over 9.5 runs: NO at 54¢ on Polymarket. A $1 winning share would return $1, while the 54¢ price assigns the Under side a 54% implied probability. Gausman and Kelly have ERAs of 4.58 and 5.37, but the market still gives the lower-scoring outcome a slight edge.
- Run in the first inning: YES at 53¢ on Polymarket. Both starting pitchers enter with ERAs above 4.50, creating an early-run scenario that the market currently prices slightly above 50%.
How to Watch Cubs vs D-Backs and Game Info
- Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- Date: Monday, August 24, 2026
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- TV: DBACKS.TV, Marquee Sports Network.
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman (6-11, 4.58 ERA).
- D-backs starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly (8-11, 5.37 ERA).
- Weather forecast: 89°F, clear skies, wind TBD.
Final Takeaways
The Cubs are the clear side based on the starting-pitching matchup, with Gausman's 4.58 ERA and 143 strikeouts giving Chicago an advantage over Kelly's 5.37 ERA. Arizona also enters without Marte and Gurriel Jr., which leaves its lineup thinner than usual. The best overall position is Cubs -1.5 at +120 at DraftKings, while the Over 9 at -120 is the preferred total based on the two starting pitchers' ERAs.
All odds as of August 23, 2026. Odds sourced from DraftKings. Check the latest odds and line movement for Cubs vs D-Backs at betting.net before placing your bets.