Are Casino-Style Games The Next Target For Prediction Markets?
Jesse M. Cox Published 21/08/2026
Are prediction market sites about to get into the casino business? These sites are already embroiled in court battles with state gambling regulators and state attorneys general over the legality of sports-event contracts. Now, several prominent organizations in the gambling industry, as well as some members of Congress, believe strongly that casinos could be the next target of these federally regulated prediction market sites.
In prediction market casino-style games, instead of betting against a casino "house" on random chance, players would trade fluctuating probabilities on short-term, micro-events. This action would turn traditional casino staples like roulette and blackjack into dynamic, crowd-priced derivatives.
Are prediction market sites eyeing casino games?
Mike Dreitzer, Chairman of the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB), was a keynote speaker at the recent National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) Summer Meeting in San Diego. He made prediction markets and casino-style games a point of emphasis in his speech.
“If you think they’re not coming for online gaming in all 50 states, you’re wrong," Dreitzer said. "Because they are coming.”
Several prominent gambling organizations, including the American Gaming Association and the North American Gaming Regulators Association (NAGRA), wrote a letter to the United States Senate. The letter requests that the federal government enact legislation that will place prediction market sites under tighter control. They are also calling for greater oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC is the federal regulator of prediction market sites.
"The CFTC was created to oversee commodities and derivatives markets, not gambling," the letter reads. "Litigation may eventually clarify the law, but this is ultimately a question of congressional intent. Congress should not wait while this nationwide expansion of gambling continues."
Several tribal gambling groups, including the Indian Gaming Association (IGA) and the National Congress of American Indians (NCAI), also signed the letter.
How would prediction market casino-style games work?
Casino-style games, or casino-style contracts at a prediction market site, would include versions of any game customarily offered in casinos or gambling establishments. This would include slot machines, blackjack, roulette, craps, poker, bingo, and lotteries.
How would these games work in a contract format? Similar to sports-event contracts, they would be peer-to-peer competitions. Rather than fixed slot or roulette payouts set by a casino, prices for outcomes would range from $0.01 to $0.99 based on live supply and demand from competing players.
For example, let's say the contract was about: Will the next card be a face card? Now, let's say that 70% of players think that the next card will be a face card. That contract trades at $0.70. If it hits, it settles at $1.00. That would net winning players a $0.30 profit per share, minus fees.
Congress is seeking to address the casino/prediction market issue
Nevada member of Congress Dana Titus has been battling for the gambling industry's interests for years. She sought to address the casino-style games being launched by prediction market sites with her Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act. California Senator Adam Schiff introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act. It uses very similar language in dealing with the issue of prediction markets launching casino-style games.
The CFTC made suggestions it wasn't looking to move into casino-style games when it recently outlined the rules for prediction markets.
"When an outcome is dictated solely by luck and cannot be meaningfully predicted, participants have no insight to contribute, leaving their forecasts without any informational value," the CFTC wrote. "Trading in such event contracts therefore provides no meaningful information that could support decision-making or market understanding.”