Nationals at Mets Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
David Genge Published 14/08/2026
The Washington Nationals are the side to back at Citi Field, with left-hander Alvarez bringing a 3.76 ERA into a matchup against New York Mets starter Stock, who owns a 10.13 ERA. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Washington at +104 and New York at -121, giving the Nationals a favorable price despite the pitching gap.
New York enters Friday with several important injuries, including Juan Soto and Mark Vientos on the injured list. Washington is also missing James Wood, but Alvarez's 65 strikeouts and much stronger run prevention give the Nationals the clearest edge on the mound.
Nationals vs Mets Game Preview
Washington enters the series at 60-63 after losing its last two games, while New York sits at 53-69 and has also dropped its last two. The Nationals have a better overall record by 7 games, but both teams arrive in poor short-term form.
Mets vs. Nationals Game Highlights (5/19/26) | MLB Highlights
The starting pitching matchup is the biggest personnel factor. Alvarez is 2-3 with a 3.76 ERA and 65 strikeouts, while Stock is 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA and only 8 strikeouts. The Mets are also without Soto and Vientos, while the Nationals have James Wood and Drew Millas on the injured list.
The game moves to Citi Field for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch, with temperatures around 80°F to 83°F and west-northwest winds of 7 to 12 mph. The Mets' pitching depth is also affected by injuries to Devin Williams, Austin Warren and Cionel Pérez, while Washington is missing several pitchers, including Josiah Gray and DJ Herz.
Moneyline Pick
The Washington Nationals ML is the pick at +104. Alvarez's 3.76 ERA is a major advantage over Stock's 10.13 ERA, and the Nationals are getting plus money despite owning a 60-63 record compared with New York's 53-69 mark.
New York's lineup is also missing Juan Soto and Mark Vientos, removing two important bats from a team already sitting at 53-69. Washington has enough pitching support from Alvarez to justify taking the underdog price.
Pick: Nationals ML (+104 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
Run Line Pick
The Washington Nationals +1.5 is the pick at -203. The number gives Washington two ways to cash, including a one-run loss, while Alvarez's 3.76 ERA provides a strong starting point against a Mets lineup missing Soto and Vientos.
The DraftKings Sportsbook price of -203 is steep, but the standard 1.5-run cushion is appropriate for a matchup where Washington has the better starting pitcher on paper. The Nationals hold a 60-63 record, giving them a 7-game edge over the Mets at 53-69, giving the underdog a stronger recent season profile despite both teams entering on two-game losing streaks.
Washington's bullpen injuries are a concern, but the +1.5 line reduces the need for the Nationals to win outright. If Alvarez can keep New York's offense in check early, Washington has enough room to stay within one run through the late innings.
Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-203 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
Best Player Prop
- Alvarez (DraftKings Sportsbook). Alvarez has recorded 65 strikeouts this season and faces a Mets lineup that has lost Juan Soto and Mark Vientos to injury. His 3.76 ERA also gives him a strong base for working deep enough into the game to build his strikeout total.
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Game Total Pick
The Over 8.5 is the pick. Stock enters with a 10.13 ERA, while Washington's offense gets a favorable matchup against a starter who has produced only 8 strikeouts, creating a clear path for the Nationals to generate runs.
The weather also supports normal offensive conditions, with temperatures of 80°F to 83°F and west-northwest winds of 7 to 12 mph at Citi Field. New York's lineup has lost Soto and Vientos, but Stock's 10.13 ERA remains the strongest total-driving factor in this matchup.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
Best Trades for Nationals vs Mets
Prediction market prices show a near-even view of the matchup, with Polymarket pricing the Mets at 52¢ and the Nationals at 49¢. The starting pitching gap favors Washington, while the total market remains almost evenly split around 8.5 runs.
- Game winner, Washington Nationals: YES at 49¢ on Polymarket. Alvarez's 3.76 ERA is substantially better than Stock's 10.13 ERA, while New York is missing Juan Soto and Mark Vientos.
- Run total 8.5: NO at 50¢ on Polymarket. Stock's 10.13 ERA creates a strong path to runs, and the weather forecast calls for 80°F to 83°F temperatures with 7 to 12 mph winds.
- Run in the first inning: YES at 52¢ on Polymarket. With a 10.13 ERA, Stock gives Washington a favorable matchup at the plate.
How to Watch Nationals vs Mets and Game Info
- Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
- Date: Friday, August 14, 2026
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- TV: WPIX, Nationals.TV
- Nationals starting pitcher: Alvarez (2-3, 3.76 ERA).
- Mets starting pitcher: Stock (0-2, 10.13 ERA).
- Weather forecast: 80°F to 83°F, mostly clear skies, west/northwest wind at 7 to 12 mph.
Final Takeaways
The Nationals have the stronger starting pitching matchup, with Alvarez carrying a 3.76 ERA against Stock's 10.13 ERA. Washington also gets plus money at +104 from DraftKings Sportsbook while New York is dealing with injuries to Juan Soto and Mark Vientos. The Nationals ML is the main pick, with the +1.5 run line offering additional protection and the Over 8.5 backed by Stock's poor run prevention.
All odds as of 4:22 a.m. ET on August 14, 2026. Odds sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. Check the latest odds and line movement for Nationals vs Mets at betting.net before placing your bets.