Pirates at Marlins Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
Jesse M. Cox Published 13/08/2026
The Pittsburgh Pirates are the side to back at -130 against the Miami Marlins on Thursday, with Bailey Ashcraft bringing an 11-5 record and 4.08 ERA into the series finale at loanDepot park. Miami counters with right-hander Phillips, who is 3-5 with a 3.47 ERA, but the Pirates have the stronger starting pitcher record and 145 strikeouts from Ashcraft.
The total is set at 8 runs, with DraftKings listing the Over at -108 and Under at -112. Pittsburgh's -1.5 run line is priced at +129 at DraftKings, giving the Pirates a more aggressive option for bettors who expect Ashcraft to control the game early.
Pirates vs Marlins Game Preview
Pittsburgh enters the finale at 58-64 after losing its last two games of the series, including an 8-2 defeat on August 12. The Pirates have also dealt with several lineup issues, with Endy Rodríguez day-to-day because of left hip discomfort and Ryan O'Hearn on the 10-day injured. Oneil Cruz is progressing through a rehab assignment and is expected to return later in August.
PIRATES vs. MARLINS: Official Full Game Highlights (August 12) | 2026 MLB Season
Miami sits at 62-59 and has won three straight after beating Pittsburgh 8-2 on August 12 and shutting out the Pirates 2-0 on August 11. Kyle Stowers has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain, while Max Meyer remains on the 15-day IL and Andrew Nardi is on the 60-day IL. Phillips gets the start with a 3.47 ERA and 70 strikeouts, giving Miami a solid right-handed option for the finale.
The game starts at 1:10 p.m. ET inside loanDepot park, where the retractable roof is expected to remain closed because of Miami's 91°F outdoor temperature and summer humidity. The controlled indoor setting removes the wind factor, while both teams are playing their third game of the series before Miami travels to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh returns home for a series against Boston.
Moneyline Pick
Pirates ML is the pick at -130 at DraftKings. Ashcraft enters the game at 11-5 with a 4.08 ERA and 145 strikeouts, giving Pittsburgh a clear starting-pitcher advantage over a Marlins starter who is 3-5 with 70 strikeouts and a 3.47 ERA.
Miami has won the first two games of the series, but Pittsburgh's current price still gives the Pirates a playable number with Ashcraft on the mound. The Pirates also have the stronger record at 58-64 compared with Miami's 62-59, keeping the moneyline within a reasonable range despite the Marlins' recent three-game winning streak.
Pick: Pirates ML (-130 at DraftKings).
Run Line Pick
Pirates -1.5 is the run line pick at +129 at DraftKings. Pittsburgh needs to win by at least two runs, and the +129 price offers a stronger return than the -130 moneyline while keeping the same starting-pitcher angle centered on Ashcraft's 11-5 record and 145 strikeouts.
Pick: Pirates -1.5 (+129 at DraftKings).
Best Player Prop
- Bailey Ashcraft. Ashcraft has recorded 145 strikeouts this season and faces a Miami lineup in a controlled indoor environment, giving his strikeout market a direct connection to his season-long workload and 4.08 ERA.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
+9
- 20+ sports available for wagering
- Pre-match and in-play betting
- Unique features like live streaming and boosted odds
Bet $10 Get $150 in Bonus Bets
Find out more on bet365's website
- Over 20 sports
- Extensive betting markets
- Live betting feature
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
+6
- Deep market coverage across major U.S. sports and leagues
- Same Game Parlay builder is fast and easy to use
- Live betting interface updates quickly with real-time odds
Game Total Pick
Under 8 runs is the total pick at -112 at DraftKings. Ashcraft brings a 4.08 ERA into the matchup, while Phillips owns a stronger 3.47 ERA, giving both starting pitchers ERAs below the 4.50 mark. The 8-run number also gives the Under a push if the game finishes with exactly eight runs.
The closed roof at loanDepot park removes the 91°F outdoor heat and humidity from the equation and eliminates wind as a variable. Miami has scored 10 runs across the first 2 games of this series, while Pittsburgh has scored only 4. Thursday's matchup features two starters with ERAs of 4.08 and 3.47, rather than the pitchers used in the previous two games.
Pick: Under 8 (-112 at DraftKings).
Best Trades for Pirates vs Marlins
The prediction market prices show a much tighter game than the DraftKings moneyline. Polymarket's supplied snapshot has Pittsburgh at 54¢ and Miami at 47¢ in the game-winner market, while the total market has Over 7.5 at 54¢ and Under 7.5 at 47¢.
- Pirates game winner: YES at 54¢ on Polymarket. Pittsburgh's 54¢ share price lines up with the supplied 54% market probability, while Ashcraft's 145 strikeouts and 11-5 record give the Pirates a strong starting-pitcher case.
- Marlins game winner: NO at 53¢ on Polymarket. Miami's YES price is 47¢, so the corresponding NO side is 53¢, and the Marlins are without Kyle Stowers after his placement on the 10-day IL.
- Over 7.5 runs: YES at 54¢ - Polymarket. The first two games of the series produced 10 total runs on August 11 and 10 runs again on August 12, putting recent series scoring above the 7.5 threshold.
How to Watch Pirates vs Marlins and Game Info
- Location: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
- Date: Thursday, August 13, 2026
- First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
- TV: Marlins.TV presented by Werner, Hoffman, Greig & Garcia; SportsNet Pittsburgh.
- Pirates starting pitcher: Ashcraft, B (11-5, 4.08 ERA).
- Marlins starting pitcher: Phillips (3-5, 3.47 ERA).
- Weather forecast: 91°F outdoors, hot and humid, indoor climate-controlled conditions with the roof expected to remain closed.
Final Takeaways
The Pirates ML at -130 is the strongest side because Ashcraft enters at 11-5 with 145 strikeouts, while Phillips is 3-5 with 70 strikeouts. Pittsburgh's -1.5 run line at +129 offers a higher-upside option for bettors expecting Ashcraft's starting-pitching advantage to lead to a win by multiple runs. The Under 8 at -112 also fits the matchup because both starters own ERAs below 4.10, and the closed roof removes Miami's outdoor heat and wind from the equation.
All odds as of 1:16 a.m. ET on August 13, 2026. Odds sourced from DraftKings. Check the latest odds and line movement for Pirates vs Marlins at betting.net before placing your bets.