FIFA Ignores World Cup Betting Anomalies Unearthed by Integrity Monitoring Group

Independent monitoring body finds suspicious World Cup betting activity

The Copenhagen Group is an independent international network aimed at detecting, sanctioning, and preventing sports match-fixing. It conducted independent monitoring based on risk analysis. This monitoring focused on betting markets, odds fluctuations, and the delisting of offers. The group's findings relied on open-source intelligence (OSINT) and social media intelligence (SOCMINT). Available technology also enabled the group to track individuals previously suspected of sports-related match-fixing.

This approach, coordinated by public authorities, constitutes one of the key principles of the Macolin Convention, the only legally binding international instrument in this area.

The Copenhagen Group reported seven anomalies to FIFA

There were seven instances during the tournament of what COE officials identified as suspicious betting activity. Temba Zwane’s red card with six minutes to play in the opening match between South Africa and Mexico was one concerning incident.

Another involved the surprising 0-0 draw between minnow Cabo Verde and eventual World Cup champions Spain. The COE pointed out that $4.8 million in US dollars was bet on Spain failing to defeat Cabo Verde on the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket.

Certainly, the most controversial incident in the entire tournament was the overturning of the red card suspension issued to U.S. national team forward Folarin Balogun. It's known that U.S. President Donald Trump called FIFA President Gianni Infantino, seeking the dropping of the suspension.

Polymarket opened a bet on June 2nd asking, “Will Balogun play against Belgium (in the quarter-finals)?” That was the same day that Balogun was sent off during the Round of 16 match against Bosnia and Herzegovina. FIFA’s disciplinary committee officially confirmed just three days later that Balogun’s suspension was deferred, allowing him to play against Belgium. According to the COE report, no prediction markets were opened for the other 14 players sent off during the tournament. None of them had their suspensions deferred.

The Copenhagen Group formally requested written explanations from FIFA regarding Balogun’s case. However, FIFA officials saw no cause for concern.

“Multiple independent expert groups jointly conducted investigations. Betting surveillance reports, related materials, and information received through reporting systems were analyzed and shared according to procedures," FIFA reported.

“As a result, no signs of suspicious betting activities or match-fixing were found in any match.”

Prediction markets present new betting integrity issues

This was the first FIFA World Cup featuring trading on prediction market sites. COE officials admitted this new form of betting was creating a more challenging environment to monitor.

“Prediction markets create unprecedented issues," the COE noted in its report. "They allow betting on a wide range of events in near-anonymous ways and use hard-to-track payment methods. "

"This was the first time we monitored them during an international tournament.”

Estimates are that $240 billion was wagered on the FIFA World Cup. That was nearly double the amount bet on the 2022 Qatar World Cup.