Cubs at Pirates Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
Jesse M. Cox Published 25/07/2026
The starting pitching matchup is the biggest story in Saturday's NL Central clash. Paul Skenes brings a 3.43 ERA and 138 strikeouts into PNC Park, while Shota Imanaga counters with a 3.91 ERA and gives Chicago a dependable left-handed option against a Pirates lineup missing several key bats.
DraftKings lists the Cubs as slight moneyline favourites at -120, with the Pirates at +100 despite Pittsburgh having home-field advantage. That creates one of the more intriguing betting decisions on Saturday's MLB slate.
Cubs vs Pirates Game Preview
Chicago enters this matchup at 58-45, while Pittsburgh sits at 53-51 in the NL Central. The Cubs continue to play without Matt Shaw, who remains on the 10-day injured list with a hand sprain, while Pittsburgh is missing catcher Rafael Flores Jr. because of concussion symptoms and remains without Oneil Cruz.
CUBS vs. PIRATES: Official Full Game Highlights (July 24) | 2026 MLB Season
The pitching matchup features two quality starters. Imanaga is 6-8 with a 109 strikeouts and 3.91 ERA, while Skenes owns a 9-8 record, a 3.43 ERA, and 138 strikeouts. Both starters have consistently worked deep into games, putting extra value on the early innings.
Conditions at PNC Park should favour the pitchers. Forecasts call for temperatures around 82 to 84 degrees, partly sunny skies, southwest winds between 4 and 6 mph, and only a slight chance of isolated showers. Neither bullpen enters with a significant scheduling disadvantage.
Moneyline Pick
Take the Cubs moneyline. Chicago has enough value behind Imanaga at the current number. While Skenes has been outstanding with a 3.43 ERA, the Cubs lineup is deeper from top to bottom and has done a better job producing against right-handed pitching than Pittsburgh has against lefties. The Pirates are also missing important offensive pieces with Rafael Flores Jr. and Oneil Cruz unavailable.
This price also offers value considering Chicago owns the better overall record entering the series. Imanaga has consistently limited hard contact, and if he keeps the Pirates off balance early, the Cubs have enough offence to pull out a close road win.
Pick: Cubs ML (-120 at DraftKings).
Run Line Pick
Take Cubs +1.5. Even if this game develops into the expected pitchers' duel, the extra run and a half provides valuable protection. Skenes rarely allows crooked numbers, while Imanaga has also kept games competitive with a sub-4.00 ERA. With a total of only 8.0 runs, every run carries extra value, making the Cubs on the run line the stronger position. Chicago has also shown it can stay competitive against quality pitching, giving the Cubs a solid chance to keep this game within one run even if Pittsburgh comes away with the win.
Pick: Cubs +1.5 (-190 at DraftKings).
Best Player Prop
- Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings). Skenes has recorded 138 strikeouts this season and continues to generate swings and misses with one of the highest strikeout rates among National League starters. Chicago's lineup also features several hitters willing to work deep counts, creating more opportunities for Skenes to pile up strikeouts over six or seven innings.
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Game Total Pick
Under 8.0 runs. Everything points toward a low-scoring game. Skenes enters with a 3.43 ERA, while Imanaga has posted a 3.91 ERA, giving both clubs reliable frontline starters capable of limiting traffic on the bases. The weather forecast also calls for only light winds of 4 to 6 mph, offering little help to fly balls.
Injuries further support the Under. Pittsburgh remains without Oneil Cruz and Rafael Flores Jr., while Chicago is still missing Matt Shaw. With both offences entering slightly shorthanded and two quality starters expected to pitch deep into the game, scoring opportunities should be limited.
Pick: Under 8.0 (-115 at DraftKings).
Best Trades for Cubs vs Pirates
Prediction markets also present several opportunities for traders in this NL Central matchup. Current Polymarket prices suggest expectations for a close game with limited scoring.
- Game winner, Cubs: YES at 46¢ on Polymarket. Chicago offers better value than its implied probability suggests with Imanaga capable of matching Skenes for much of the game.
- Will there be a run in the first inning, NO: YES at 57¢ on Polymarket. Two starting pitchers with ERAs below 4.00 make a scoreless opening inning the stronger probability.
- Pirates +1.5 equivalent market: NO at 37¢ on Polymarket. If Chicago wins behind Imanaga, there is a reasonable chance it comes by multiple runs against a Pirates lineup missing several contributors.
How to Watch Cubs vs Pirates and Game Info
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
- Date: Saturday, July 25, 2026
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- TV: Marquee Sports Network, SportsNet Pittsburgh.
- Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga (6-8, 3.91 ERA).
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes (9-8, 3.43 ERA).
- Weather forecast: 82 to 84°F, partly sunny, southwest wind 4 to 6 mph, slight chance of isolated showers.
Final Takeaways
This matchup starts and ends with the starting pitchers. Skenes gives Pittsburgh an edge on the mound, but the Cubs enter with the stronger overall lineup and enough value on the moneyline. The Under also stands out because both starters have consistently limited runs and the weather does little to favour hitters. Expect a tight game that is decided by timely hitting rather than a high-scoring shootout.
Check the latest odds and line movement for Cubs vs. Pirates at betting.net before placing your bets. All odds as of 6:40 p.m. ET on July 25, 2026. Odds sourced from DraftKings.