Cardinals at Diamondbacks Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
Jesse M. Cox Published 17/07/2026
The Cardinals enter Friday night's matchup with a clear edge on the mound by default, as Arizona continues to battle one of the most depleted pitching staffs in baseball. Merrill Kelly takes the ball with a 5.38 ERA, while the Cardinals remain slight favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook despite not yet announcing a starting pitcher.
Arizona's injury situation is difficult to overlook, especially with Zac Gallen and several other starters unavailable. That puts extra pressure on Kelly and a bullpen that has already been stretched during the first half.
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Game Preview
St. Louis enters the series at 50-45 and has been the steadier club heading into the second half. The Cardinals also arrive with a relatively healthy roster, while Arizona has six starting pitchers on the injured list, including Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes, Ryne Nelson, Michael Soroka, Cristian Mena, and Blake Walston.
D-BACKS vs. CARDINALS Full Game Highlights (6/24/26) | MLB Highlights
The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to Merrill Kelly, who owns a 7-8 record with a 5.38 ERA and 59 strikeouts. St. Louis has yet to announce its starter, but regardless of who gets the assignment, Arizona's biggest concern remains protecting innings behind Kelly given its lack of healthy rotation depth.
Chase Field's retractable roof removes weather from the equation despite outside temperatures expected between 90°F and 95°F. Geraldo Perdomo is expected to return after receiving a cortisone shot, providing a boost for Arizona's lineup, while Tommy Troy and Jordan Lawlar remain unavailable.
Moneyline Pick
Back the Cardinals on the moneyline. Arizona's pitching injuries are simply too significant to ignore. Kelly has struggled to a 5.38 ERA this season, and facing a disciplined Cardinals lineup behind an overworked pitching staff creates a difficult matchup for the home club.
St. Louis also enters with the healthier roster and has fewer question marks heading into the series opener. Even without a confirmed starting pitcher, the Cardinals hold the stronger overall pitching outlook because Arizona's depth has been severely depleted.
A deeper look at the matchup also favors St. Louis late in the game. Arizona has been forced to shuffle its pitching plans throughout the season because of injuries, increasing the likelihood of multiple relievers covering meaningful innings.
That puts additional pressure on a bullpen that has already absorbed a heavier workload, while the Cardinals have the flexibility to attack favorable matchups throughout the game. If St. Louis generates early traffic against Kelly, it should have opportunities to extend the lead once Arizona turns to its relief corps.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-112 at DraftKings).
Run Line Pick
Take the Cardinals -1.5. The plus-money return adds value against a Diamondbacks team relying heavily on replacement pitching. If St. Louis builds an early lead against Kelly, Arizona's thin bullpen could struggle to keep the game close over the final innings.
The Cardinals have also played cleaner baseball when holding a lead, and their lineup has enough depth to continue generating offense beyond the first few innings. Arizona's pitching staff has little margin for error with so many starters unavailable, making it difficult to match St. Louis if the visitors create early scoring opportunities.
Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (+140 at DraftKings).
Best Player Prop
- Merrill Kelly Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125 at DraftKings). Kelly has recorded just 59 strikeouts while carrying a 5.38 ERA, and the Cardinals generally make opposing starters work deep counts. Arizona may also have a shorter leash given its recent pitching concerns.
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Game Total Pick
Over 9 runs. Kelly enters with a 5.38 ERA, and Arizona's pitching depth remains one of the biggest concerns entering the second half. The Diamondbacks have multiple rotation arms on the injured list, increasing the likelihood that several relievers will be needed to finish the game.
Chase Field consistently plays as a favorable offensive environment when the roof is closed, creating comfortable hitting conditions throughout the game. With Arizona expected to get Geraldo Perdomo back in the lineup and St. Louis facing an undermanned pitching staff, both offenses have paths to contributing to a higher-scoring contest.
Pick: Over 9 (-122 at DraftKings).
Best Trades for Cardinals vs Diamondbacks
Prediction markets see this matchup as one of Friday's more balanced games, but Arizona's pitching injuries continue to push market sentiment toward St. Louis. Current prices leave several attractive trading opportunities for those following game-specific contracts.
- Game Winner: Cardinals YES at 52¢ on Polymarket. The Cardinals own a slight market edge, and Arizona's injury-depleted rotation supports that pricing entering the series opener.
- Run Total Over 9.5: YES at 49¢ on Polymarket. Kelly's 5.38 ERA and Arizona's limited pitching depth increase the probability of both teams producing offense.
- Run in the First Inning: YES at 58¢ on Polymarket. Kelly has been vulnerable early this season, and both lineups have enough top-end hitters to threaten immediately.
How to Watch Cardinals vs Diamondbacks and Game Info
- Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- Date: Friday, July 17, 2026
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- TV: DBACKS.TV, Cardinals.TV Presented by bet365
- Cardinals starting pitcher: TBD
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly (7-8, 5.38 ERA)
- Weather forecast: Retractable roof expected to eliminate weather impact. Outside conditions around 90°F to 95°F with light 5 mph winds.
Final Takeaways
The Cardinals enter this matchup with the stronger overall outlook thanks to Arizona's significant pitching injuries and Merrill Kelly's difficult season. Backing St. Louis on the moneyline remains the strongest play, while the Over also benefits from Arizona's lack of healthy pitching depth. Unless the Cardinals announce an unexpected bullpen game, they carry the more complete profile entering Friday night's opener.
Check the latest odds and line movement for Cardinals vs Diamondbacks at betting.net before placing your bets. All odds as of publication. Odds sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook.