Democrats Call For Prediction Market Ban on Federal Judiciary
David Genge Published 09/07/2026
Rep. Jamie Raskin, Ranking Member of the House Judiciary Committee, and Rep. Hank Johnson, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, Artificial Intelligence, and the Internet, sent a letter to the Honorable Robert J. Conrad Jr., Director of the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, urging the Judicial Conference to prohibit federal judges, clerks, and judicial staff from participating in online prediction markets.
The House Democrats were expressing their concern over the possibility of insider trading, as well as the ethical concerns any prediction market participation would present. They feel that stronger safeguards must be put into place.
Federal Judiciary and prediction markets are not a good mix
The Ranking Members from both of these committees express concern that anyone working in the federal judiciary has access to confidential information that could be useful for profiting on prediction market outcomes.
“Federal officials in all three branches of government often have advance knowledge of, if not direct influence or control over, the prospective outcome of a wager related to public policy events and decisions. It is no surprise that, in this setting, prediction markets appear rife with insider trading and other abuses,” wrote the Ranking Members in their letter.
Prediction market platforms allow users to wager on the outcome of future events. The growing use of prediction markets poses serious ethical risks to the federal judiciary. These markets enable betting on matters directly related to the courts. This would include case outcomes, the length of judicial opinions, and even the timing of a Supreme Court Justice’s retirement.
A quick survey of active trades on Polymarket showed 12 prediction markets relating directly to Supreme Court outcomes.
Existing judicial ethics rules may address some aspects of this conduct. However, House Democrats fear this is not a strong enough deterrent. They are calling for a clear, categorical ban to eliminate ambiguity and fully safeguard the integrity of the courts.
“We respectfully urge the Judicial Conference to take prompt action to prohibit participation in prediction markets by the entire federal judiciary and their staff. Establishing this rule now will help protect the integrity of judicial decision-making, prevent the appearance of impropriety, and reinforce public confidence in the judicial branch,” wrote the Ranking Members.
Prediction markets need stronger regulation
The Ranking Members are also expressing concern that there isn't sufficient jurisdiction over how prediction markets operate. All prediction market sites fall under the regulatory powers of the federal Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). They note that prediction markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt currently operate largely outside of state gambling restrictions.
They're also expressing worry that under the Trump Administration, these sites have faced limited federal oversight. Judges and court personnel may have access to nonpublic information or influence over judicial outcomes. Their participation in such markets would raise significant concerns about insider trading, conflicts of interest, and the appearance of impropriety.
The U.S. Senate has already unanimously passed a ban on Senators and their staff members from participating in prediction markets.
There's already evidence of insider trading
This concern is not unwarranted. Already, there has been a member of the U.S. military charged with insider trading. Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly made more than $400,000 trading on Polymarket. His trades were based on classified information regarding the timing of a U.S. military operation to capture President Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
The Justice Department charged Van Dyke with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.