France vs Morocco Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026 Quarter-Finals
Jesse M. Cox Published 06/07/2026
The 2026 World Cup quarterfinals open with a rematch of the 2022 semifinal as France face Morocco at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Four years after Les Bleus ended Morocco's fairytale run in Qatar, the Atlas Lions get their shot at revenge with a place in the final four on the line.
France have been the team to beat, winning all five games and scoring 16 goals, with a commanding 3-0 win over Sweden before a hard-fought 1-0 grind past Paraguay. Morocco have made their run look serene, unbeaten across the tournament, edging the Netherlands on penalties before a comfortable 3-0 win over Canada.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make France clear favorites at around -175 in 90 minutes, with the draw near +285 and Morocco the underdog at roughly +500. On the advancement market, France are about -370 to reach the semifinals, with Morocco around +285.
Kalshi's prediction market lands in the same range, pricing France at 62% to win in regulation, the draw at 25%, and Morocco at 15%. Les Bleus are firmly favored to advance.
France have the tournament's most prolific attack and its meaner defense, conceding just twice in five games, and they beat this same opponent in the 2022 semifinal. Morocco are organized, unbeaten and dangerous, but they have relied on fine margins and their metrics against Canada flattered them, so a controlled, low-scoring French win is the most likely path. The standout names on show lead the player-of-the-tournament market.
Verdict: France at -175 is the lean, with their greater quality at both ends set to edge a stubborn Morocco, echoing their 2022 semifinal win.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Under 2.5 goals favored around -115 and Over 2.5 out near -105. France's grind-it-out knockout style and Morocco's low block skew the line low.
France created little from open play against Paraguay outside Mbappé's penalty, and Morocco defend deep and rarely beat themselves, exactly the template that produced a tight 2-0 in the 2022 semifinal. With one side controlling and the other content to sit in, a low-scoring contest is the most likely outcome.
Verdict: Lean Under 2.5 goals at -115, with France's controlled approach and Morocco's discipline pointing to a low-scoring quarterfinal.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 49¢ and No at 52¢, essentially a coin flip leaning slightly to No. Sportsbooks frame it similarly, with No around -125 and Yes near +105.
The case for No is real: France have conceded just twice all tournament and kept clean sheets in the knockouts, while Morocco's attack managed minimal expected goals against Canada and may be without their standout in Saibari. One side being kept quiet is firmly in play.
The case for Yes leans on Morocco's counter-attacking threat and France's occasional defensive lapses against organized sides. On balance, the defensive quality edges this toward No.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score No at 52¢ on Kalshi, or -125 at the sportsbooks, with France's defensive record the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
France have often started knockout games patiently, and Morocco's deep block could keep the opening 45 tight. Kalshi's first-half market reflects a close call, pricing France at 46% to lead at the break, the Tie at 41%, and Morocco at 14%.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with France to lead at the interval around -105, the First-Half Draw near +130, and Morocco ahead at half-time out around +500. The market splits closely between a France lead and a level half.
France posted next to nothing in the first half against Senegal and Paraguay before pulling clear late, so a cagey opening fits their pattern, favoring a level first half. France's miserly back line makes goalkeeper Mike Maignan one to note among the leading goalkeeper bets at the tournament.
Verdict: A coin flip between France to lead at half-time and the First-Half Draw, with the draw a live call near +130.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
France's attackers dominate this market, with Morocco's forwards offering value on the underdog side. Kylian Mbappé, the tournament's runaway top scorer, headlines the board.
- Kylian Mbappé (France) - -110: The tournament's leading scorer with seven goals and 19 in 19 World Cup games, Mbappé is firing at roughly a goal a game and is comfortably the most likely scorer on the pitch, with the pace to punish Morocco in behind.
- Ousmane Dembélé (France) - +160: In magnificent form and a constant threat from either flank, Dembélé stretches defenses and carries a genuine goal threat against a deep block.
- Michael Olise (France) - +190: France's creative hub shoots first-look and arrives in the box, a real goal threat as well as their chief supplier.
- Marcus Thuram (France) - +200: A strong central striker option, Thuram offers a penalty-box presence and is well placed to convert if he leads the line.
- Brahim Díaz (Morocco) - +330: With Saibari a fitness doubt, Morocco's most creative attacker carries a heavier load and is their clearest route to a goal, the best value play on the underdog side.
Verdict: Kylian Mbappé at -110 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Brahim Díaz at +330 the strongest value play for Morocco.
Injury Report
France arrive close to full strength and rampant, with Mbappé, Dembélé and Olise in outstanding form and a defense that has conceded just twice all tournament. Didier Deschamps has few concerns, with the only question whether his side can raise their open-play output after a functional win over Paraguay.
Morocco face a significant worry over Ismael Saibari, their standout attacker, who left the Canada win with an injury and is a doubt for the quarterfinal, a potential blow that would place more creative burden on Brahim Díaz and Azzedine Ounahi. Their strength remains a disciplined, well-organized back line built to frustrate.
Weather Forecast
The 4:00 PM ET kickoff at the open-air Gillette Stadium is expected to bring warm, comfortable mid-summer conditions with a low chance of rain. Pleasant weather should suit both sides without disruption.
A dry, true surface suits France's quick combination play and the pace of Mbappé and Dembélé in behind, helping them break down a deep Morocco block. The settled conditions keep the focus squarely on whether Morocco's discipline can contain France's firepower.
How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
- Time: 4:00 PM ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts (Boston)
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
Before backing a side in this quarterfinal, it is worth comparing the latest knockout-round welcome offers to secure the best price. Back France to advance with the Under and Kylian Mbappé anytime as the standout plays on the board.