Portugal vs Croatia Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Mike Goodpaster Published 30/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Round of 32 serves up a heavyweight tie as Portugal face Croatia at BMO Field in Toronto. Two of the tournament's enduring greats, Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modrić, meet in what is almost certainly a final World Cup for at least one of them.
Portugal reached the knockouts as Group K runners-up, unbeaten through a 5-0 rout of Uzbekistan but stuttering to draws with DR Congo and Colombia. Croatia finished second in Group L the harder way, recovering from a 4-2 loss to England to grind out wins over Panama and Ghana, with the 40-year-old Modrić still pulling the strings.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Portugal favorites at around -125 in 90 minutes, with the draw near +240 and Croatia the underdog at roughly +400. On the advancement market, Portugal are about -240 to reach the last 16, with Croatia around +185.
Kalshi's prediction market lands in a similar place, pricing Portugal at 55% to win in regulation, the draw at 27%, and Croatia at 20%. Portugal are favored, but this is far from a closeout.
Portugal's ceiling is higher, their squad deeper, and the Ronaldo factor a constant tilt, but their stuttering draws with DR Congo and Colombia show sides willing to sit can frustrate them. Croatia's experienced midfield through Modrić and Kovačić can control tempo if allowed to settle, making the Vatreni a live underdog. The standout names on show feature in the player-of-the-tournament market.
Verdict: Portugal at -125 is the lean, with their superior depth and Ronaldo's threat set to edge a tight knockout tie.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, and the market is split: Under 2.5 goals is favored around -135, with Over 2.5 available near +105. Portugal's attacking struggles pull against the goal threat at both ends.
The case for the Under is Portugal's blunt displays against DR Congo and Colombia, staying under one expected goal in both, and the cautious nature of knockout football. The case for the Over rests on Croatia's leaky spell against England and Portugal conceding to DR Congo, but the controlled, tense profile of this tie tips it slightly toward fewer goals.
Verdict: Lean Under 2.5 goals at -135, with Portugal's recent attacking struggles and the knockout caution pointing to a tight game.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 50¢ and No at 51¢, a true coin flip. Sportsbooks frame it similarly, with Yes around -105 and No near -115.
The case for Yes is backed by history: all five recent meetings between these sides produced goals at both ends, and Croatia carry enough attacking quality through Kramarić and Perišić to find the net even against an organized Portugal back line. Portugal, too, conceded to DR Congo.
The case for No leans on both teams' ability to defend when required, with Portugal drawing 0-0 with Colombia. It is genuinely close, but the head-to-head record nudges this toward both teams scoring.
Verdict: A narrow lean to Both Teams to Score Yes at 50¢ on Kalshi, or around -105 at the sportsbooks, with the goal-heavy head-to-head record the tiebreaker.
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First-Half Moneyline
Knockout ties between experienced sides often start cautiously, and Croatia will be happy to keep things level early. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the Tie at 44¢, Portugal at 41¢, and Croatia at 18¢.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the favorite around +115, Portugal to lead at the break near +150, and Croatia ahead at half-time out around +450. A level scoreline at the interval is the most probable single outcome.
Portugal's quality means an early goal is possible, but Croatia's midfield control could keep the opening 45 tight. Before backing a side, it pays to compare the latest knockout-round welcome offers to secure the best price.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 44¢ on Kalshi, or +115 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with Croatia likely to keep it level early.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Portugal's deep attack headlines this market, with Croatia's forwards offering value at longer prices. Cristiano Ronaldo, the penalty and set-piece focal point, leads the board.
- Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) - -120: The shortest-priced scorer on either side, Ronaldo has two goals already at this tournament and remains the focal point of Portugal's box presence on set pieces and second balls in what may be his final World Cup.
- Gonçalo Ramos (Portugal) - +140: A natural penalty-box finisher pushing for a start, Ramos offers a sharper attacking profile and is well placed to convert if he leads the line.
- João Félix (Portugal) - +190: A creative forward who finds space between the lines, Félix carries a strong goal threat off the bench or in a start against a Croatia defense exposed by England.
- Rafael Leão (Portugal) - +250: The direct winger's pace down the left, combining with Nuno Mendes, is one of Portugal's primary avenues for creation and a genuine goal threat.
- Andrej Kramarić (Croatia) - +300: Croatia's most reliable finisher with sharp movement between the lines, Kramarić is the underdogs' best route to a goal and the standout value on their side.
Verdict: Cristiano Ronaldo at -120 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Andrej Kramarić at +300 the strongest value play for Croatia.
Injury Report
Portugal have no major injury concerns, with Roberto Martínez able to call on a deep pool across every position and Rúben Dias anchoring the defense. The forward line is rich, with Leão, Pedro Neto, Conceição, Félix and Ramos all pushing for starts alongside Ronaldo, and the João Neves-versus-Modrić midfield duel shaping as the game's key battle.
Croatia must manage the 40-year-old Modrić carefully after three group games in ten days, but his importance to their build-up means he is certain to start. Zlatko Dalić can otherwise field the experienced spine of Kovačić, Gvardiol, Kramarić and Perišić, though the defensive frailties exposed by England remain a concern.
Weather Forecast
The 7:00 PM ET kickoff at the open-air BMO Field is expected to bring mild, comfortable mid-summer conditions in Toronto with a low chance of rain. Pleasant evening weather should suit both sides without disruption.
A dry, true surface favors the side that wants to play through the lines, suiting Portugal's technical quality and the pace of Leão down the left. The settled conditions keep the focus squarely on the midfield battle and the knockout tension.
How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, July 2, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the best soccer betting sites compares the top prices and features for the knockout rounds. Back Portugal to advance with the Under and Cristiano Ronaldo anytime as the standout plays on the board.