Germany vs Paraguay Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Mike Goodpaster Published 29/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Round of 32 continues as Germany face Paraguay at Gillette Stadium in Boston. Julian Nagelsmann's side arrive as heavy favorites, but Paraguay have rebuilt their tournament on a stubborn, defend-and-counter approach that makes them an awkward knockout opponent.
Germany topped Group E with a 7-1 rout of Curaçao and a win over Ivory Coast before resting players in a dead-rubber loss to Ecuador. Paraguay recovered from an opening 4-1 defeat to the USA with back-to-back clean sheets against Türkiye and Australia to sneak through as a best third-placed side, setting up a classic favorite-versus-low-block knockout tie.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Germany heavy favorites at around -265 in 90 minutes, with the draw near +390 and Paraguay the long shot at roughly +775. On the advancement market, Germany are about -750 to reach the last 16, with Paraguay around +490.
Kalshi's prediction market is similarly emphatic, pricing Germany at 74% to win in regulation, the draw at 18%, and Paraguay at just 9%. Die Mannschaft are firmly favored to progress.
Germany's Musiala-Wirtz-Havertz attacking triangle generated some of the best numbers of the group stage, and their quality should eventually break down a deep Paraguay block. The Albirroja will sit in a compact 4-4-2 and look to counter, so the value lives in the goals and scorer markets rather than the prohibitive moneyline, and it pays to compare the latest knockout-round welcome offers before backing such a short price.
Verdict: Germany at -265 is the clear call, with a handicap or scorer angle the sharper value route than the short straight price.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Over 2.5 goals favored around -137 and Under 2.5 out near +106. This is the most interesting market on the card, with two opposing trends colliding.
Germany's last eight games all went over 2.5 goals, but Paraguay's last five all went under 2.5, and the suspension of Diego Gómez removes their set-piece taker and primary presser. Germany's firepower should ultimately tell, but Paraguay's defensive transformation and Germany's habit of winning knockout games narrowly make the Under a live value play at plus money.
Verdict: Lean Over 2.5 goals at -137, with Germany's attacking quality set to break through, though Under 2.5 at +106 holds genuine value.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 45¢ and No at 56¢, a lean toward No. Sportsbooks frame it similarly, with No favored around -143 and Yes out near +108.
The case for Yes leans on Germany not having kept a World Cup clean sheet since the 2014 final and Paraguay's threat through Almirón and Enciso on the counter. The Albirroja can nick one in transition.
The case for No rests on Paraguay's blunt attack, just three goals in their last six competitive games, and the loss of their set-piece taker in Gómez. On balance, a Paraguay blank is the slightly more likely outcome.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score No at 56¢ on Kalshi, or -143 at the sportsbooks, with Paraguay's weakened attack the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
Germany have the quality to start fast against a side that conceded three first-half goals to the USA, though Paraguay's low block could delay the opener. Kalshi's first-half market favors Germany, pricing them at 55% to lead at the break, the Tie at 37%, and Paraguay at just 10%.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with Germany to lead at the interval around -125, the First-Half Draw near +150, and Paraguay ahead at half-time out around +650. Die Mannschaft are favored to be in front by half-time.
Paraguay failed to register a first-half shot on target against the USA, and Germany's territorial dominance should produce an early goal more often than not. Germany's young creators are among the names worth tracking in the best young player markets this summer.
Verdict: Germany to lead at half-time, priced at 55¢ on Kalshi or around -125 at the sportsbooks, is the play.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Germany's attackers dominate this market against a deep Paraguay block, with the Albirroja offering value only at long prices. The German front line leads the board.
- Deniz Undav (Germany) - +100: A sharp, mobile finisher in fine form, Undav is the shortest-priced scorer on the board and a strong candidate to feature heavily against a Paraguay side that will be pinned back.
- Kai Havertz (Germany) - +110: Germany's focal point up front, Havertz operates as the reference point in Nagelsmann's attack and should get clear sights of goal in a game Germany dominate.
- Nick Woltemade (Germany) - +135: A strong aerial threat and clinical finisher, Woltemade is a live option whether he starts or arrives off the bench against a deep block.
- Florian Wirtz (Germany) - +175: Germany's chief creator shoots first-look and arrives in the box, carrying a genuine goal threat as the line-breaker against Paraguay's mid-block.
- Gabriel Ávalos (Paraguay) - +400: Paraguay's striker is their best longshot to find the net if the Albirroja create a rare clear chance on the counter.
Verdict: Deniz Undav at +100 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Kai Havertz at +110 the strongest supporting play.
Injury Report
Germany are without center-back Nico Schlotterbeck, ruled out for the tournament, with left-back Nathaniel Brown a minor doubt, but the key attacking trio of Musiala, Wirtz and Havertz is fully available under Nagelsmann. Their depth and quality across the front line are a clear advantage in this tie.
Paraguay's biggest blow is the suspension of midfielder Diego Gómez, who served as their primary set-piece taker and pressing engine, weakening both their attacking threat and midfield structure. Defender Omar Alderete is a knee doubt, though Miguel Almirón returns from suspension to add a counter-attacking spark for Gustavo Alfaro's side.
Weather Forecast
The 4:30 PM ET kickoff at the open-air Gillette Stadium is expected to bring mostly sunny skies, temperatures around 80°F, and a gentle breeze, with virtually no chance of rain. Clear, dry conditions should suit both sides without disruption.
A dry, true surface suits Germany's quick combination play and the runs of Wirtz and Musiala in the half-spaces, helping them break down a deep Paraguay block. The settled conditions reinforce Germany's control over tempo across the full 90 minutes.
How to Watch
- Date: Monday, June 29, 2026
- Time: 4:30 PM ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts (Boston)
- US TV Station: FS1 (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the leading goalkeeper bets highlights the tournament's standout shot-stoppers, and you can compare the best prices across our reviewed sportsbooks. Back Germany to advance with the Over and Deniz Undav anytime as the standout plays on the board.