France vs Iraq Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Jesse M. Cox Published 19/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group I campaign continues as France face Iraq at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Les Bleus arrive as tournament favorites after a statement 3-1 win over Senegal, with Kylian Mbappé in irresistible form.
Iraq, back at the World Cup for the first time since 1986, sit bottom of the group after a 4-1 defeat to Norway, though they briefly drew level through Aymen Hussein. For France, this is a chance to seal progression and manage minutes ahead of a likely group decider with Norway.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make France overwhelming favorites at around -1100, with the draw out near +850 and Iraq a remote long shot at roughly +2500. The talent gap is enormous.
Kalshi's prediction market is even more emphatic, pricing France at 90% to win in 90 minutes, the draw at 8%, and Iraq at just 4%. There is no realistic path to an Iraq result on the numbers.
France boast a squad with no identifiable weakness and attacking depth that dwarfs anything Iraq can field, with Mbappé now the nation's all-time leading scorer. The only intrigue is whether Deschamps rotates with the Norway decider looming, so the value lives in the goals and scorer markets, and it pays to compare the current World Cup sign-up offers before backing such a short price.
Verdict: France at -1100 is a formality, with a winning margin or scorer angle the only sensible value route.
Over/Under
The total is set high at 3.5, with Over 3.5 goals priced around -105 and Under 3.5 near -120. France's firepower against a leaky Iraq defense drives the elevated line.
Iraq conceded four to Norway and will struggle to contain France's volume of attacking talent, even a rotated one. With Les Bleus chasing goals and goal difference, a multi-goal France win is the base case, though the high line leaves the total a closer call than the result.
Verdict: Lean Over on a 2.5 line where available, with France's depth set to overwhelm a limited Iraq defense.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 33¢ and No at 68¢, a firm lean toward No. Sportsbooks agree, with No heavily favored around -190 and Yes out near +150.
The case for No is strong: Iraq managed little against Norway beyond their one moment through Aymen Hussein, and France's defense should comfortably handle a limited attack. A France win to nil is one of the most backed angles on the card.
The case for Yes leans purely on a rare Iraq set-piece or transition moment. On balance, an Iraq blank is comfortably the more likely outcome.
Verdict: A clear lean to Both Teams to Score No at 68¢ on Kalshi, or -190 at the sportsbooks, with Iraq's blunt attack the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
France started slowly against Senegal before pulling away, and a deep Iraq block could again delay the opener. Kalshi's first-half market still favors Les Bleus heavily, pricing France at 71% to lead at the break, the Tie at 25%, and Iraq at just 5%.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with France to lead at the interval around -250, the First-Half Draw near +260, and Iraq ahead at the break a remote +1600. France are strongly favored to be in front by half-time.
Iraq's organization could keep it level briefly, but France's quality should produce a first-half goal more often than not. Mbappé's brilliance also keeps him at the heart of the player-of-the-tournament market as the favorites' talisman.
Verdict: France to lead at half-time, priced at 71¢ on Kalshi or around -250 at the sportsbooks, is the play.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
France's attackers dominate this market against a deep Iraq defense, with rotation the only real question over who starts. Kylian Mbappé headlines the board.
- Kylian Mbappé (France) - +110: Fresh off a brace against Senegal that made him France's all-time leading scorer, Mbappé is the most likely scorer on the pitch and the designated focal point whenever he features, with the pace to torment Iraq's defense.
- Hugo Ekitiké (France) - +160: A natural penalty-box finisher who scored against Senegal, Ekitiké is well placed to convert in a game France should dominate, especially if he leads a rotated line.
- Bradley Barcola (France) - +175: On the scoresheet in the opener, the pacey winger offers a direct goal threat and is a strong option whether he starts or comes off the bench.
- Ousmane Dembélé (France) - +200: The Ballon d'Or winner stretches defenses from either flank and carries a genuine goal threat against a side that will sit deep.
- Aymen Hussein (Iraq) - +900: Iraq's main striker scored against Norway and is their best longshot to find the net if the Lions of Mesopotamia muster a rare clear chance.
Verdict: Kylian Mbappé at +110 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Hugo Ekitiké at +160 the strongest supporting play.
Injury Report
France arrive with no significant injury concerns, leaving Deschamps a formidable, deep group to choose from across his entire front line. The main question is rotation rather than fitness, as France may rest key men with one eye on the decisive group game against Norway.
Iraq are also without major reported absences but face the far bigger problem of a quality gap, having been comfortably beaten by Norway. Their plan will center on a deep, disciplined block built around containing France's wide threats for as long as possible.
Weather Forecast
The 5:00 PM ET kickoff in Philadelphia is expected to bring hot, humid summer conditions at the open-air Lincoln Financial Field, with afternoon heat a genuine factor. The conditions could sap legs in the closing stages.
A dry surface suits France's quick combination play and the direct running of their forwards, helping them break down a deep Iraq block. Any late fatigue would only widen the gap as Iraq tire chasing the game.
How to Watch
- Date: Monday, June 22, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the top-rated sportsbooks compares the best prices and features for the tournament. Back France to win big with the Over and Kylian Mbappé anytime as the standout plays on the board.