Norway vs Senegal Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Jesse M. Cox Published 19/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group I campaign reaches a decisive second matchday as Norway face Senegal at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. In a group many have labeled a mini "group of death," this clash is effectively a second-place decider behind front-runners France.
Norway sit top after a commanding 4-1 win over Iraq, with Erling Haaland making a statement on his World Cup debut, while Senegal lost 3-1 to France and now find themselves under serious pressure. A win would put Norway on the brink of the knockouts, while defeat could spell early elimination for the Teranga Lions.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Norway slight favorites at around +138, with Senegal close behind near +210 and the draw at roughly +260. This is a tight, finely balanced three-way market.
Kalshi's prediction market reads it the same way, pricing Norway at 42% to win in 90 minutes, Senegal at 32%, and the draw at 27%. There is little to separate the sides on the numbers.
Norway carry momentum and the relentless threat of Haaland and Ødegaard, while Senegal have the defensive quality and counter-attacking pace to make this a battle. The key question is whether Senegal's veteran spine can contain Haaland, and it pays to compare the current World Cup sign-up offers before backing either side in such a close market.
Verdict: Norway at +138 is the lean, with their momentum and Haaland's form edging a tight, high-stakes contest.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Over 2.5 goals favored around -130 and Under 2.5 out near +108. Norway's attacking firepower drives the lean toward goals.
Norway have scored freely in recent matches, putting four past Iraq and three past Sweden, and Senegal must commit forward to chase the result they need. With Haaland leading the line and Senegal's pace on the counter, an open game with goals is the most likely outcome.
Verdict: Lean Over 2.5 goals at -130, with Norway's firepower and Senegal's need to attack pointing to goals.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 55¢ and No at 46¢, a lean toward both finding the net. Sportsbooks frame it similarly, with Yes favored around -130 and No out near +105.
The case for Yes is strong: Senegal created good chances against France before fading, with Jackson hitting the post, and Norway's attack will always threaten. Both sides carry genuine scoring quality.
The case for No leans on Senegal's defensive organization, which held France for long spells, and the chance they shut up shop. On balance, the attacking threat at both ends points to both teams scoring.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score Yes at 55¢ on Kalshi, or -130 at the sportsbooks, with scoring quality at both ends the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
High-stakes group games between well-matched sides often start cautiously, with neither team wanting an early mistake. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the Tie at 43¢, Norway at 33¢, and Senegal at 26¢.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the favorite around +110, Norway to lead at the break near +160, and Senegal ahead at half-time out around +210. A level scoreline at the interval is the most probable single outcome.
Norway's quality means an early goal is possible, but the cagey, high-stakes setup could keep the opening 45 tight. Senegal's emerging talents are among the names worth tracking in the best young player markets this summer.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 43¢ on Kalshi, or +110 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with both teams likely to feel each other out early.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Norway's attackers headline this market, led by the tournament's most clinical finisher, with Senegal's forwards offering value at longer prices.
- Erling Haaland (Norway) - +120: Fresh off a brace against Iraq, the Manchester City striker is comfortably the most likely scorer on the pitch, an elite finisher who needs only a half-chance against any defense, even one as experienced as Senegal's.
- Alexander Sørloth (Norway) - +200: Norway's secondary striker is a strong penalty-box presence in his own right and gives them a second genuine threat against a Senegal back line under pressure.
- Nicolas Jackson (Senegal) - +220: The Chelsea striker hit the post against France and is Senegal's most likely scorer, their best route to a goal on the counter and in behind.
- Antonio Nusa (Norway) - +260: The pacey winger stretches defenses and carries a real goal threat from wide, ideal against a Senegal side that may have to push forward.
- Sadio Mané (Senegal) - +330: The veteran remains capable of producing a moment from nothing and is a live longshot to find the net for the Teranga Lions.
Verdict: Erling Haaland at +120 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Nicolas Jackson at +220 the strongest value play for Senegal.
Injury Report
Norway arrive close to full strength and riding a wave of momentum, with Haaland and Ødegaard leading a settled, in-form side. Their challenge is sustaining intensity rather than any availability concern after a dominant opener.
Senegal are without major reported absences but face questions over the fitness of an aging core, with Mané, Koulibaly and Mendy all carrying heavy minutes across a compressed group stage. Coach Pape Thiaw can otherwise name the experienced side that competed well with France before fading.
Weather Forecast
The 8:00 PM ET kickoff at the open-air MetLife Stadium is expected to bring warm, humid early-summer conditions with a low chance of rain. The evening heat could sap legs in the closing stages.
Those conditions could blunt Norway's high-energy pressing late on, raising the importance of the bench, while a dry surface aids quick transitions for both sides. A slower second-half tempo could play into Senegal's counter-attacking hands if they stay in the game.
How to Watch
- Date: Monday, June 22, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the top-rated sportsbooks compares the best prices and features for the tournament. Back Norway to win with the Over and Erling Haaland anytime as the standout plays on the board.