England vs Croatia Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Mike Goodpaster Published 16/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group L campaign opens with a heavyweight clash as England face Croatia at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Thomas Tuchel's side arrive among the tournament favorites after a flawless qualifying campaign in which they did not concede a single goal.
Croatia renew a rivalry that has defined recent tournaments, from their 2018 World Cup semifinal win to England's victory at Euro 2020. Luka Modrić leads the golden generation into what is widely seen as his final World Cup, though questions linger over their defensive resilience.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make England favorites at around -135, with the draw near +280 and Croatia the underdog at roughly +400. The price reflects England's edge without making this a routine win.
Kalshi's prediction market lands in a similar place, pricing England at 58% to win in 90 minutes, the draw at 25%, and Croatia at 19%. The Three Lions are favored, but the fuller draw price reflects how tight these meetings tend to be.
England carry superior squad depth and a settled spine of Kane, Saka, Bellingham and Rice, and their defense did not concede across eight qualifiers. Croatia remain dangerous through Modrić and Kramarić, but neither side has won this fixture by more than a goal since 2009.
Verdict: England at -135 is the lean, with their defensive solidity and attacking depth edging a historically tight contest.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Under 2.5 goals favored around -135 and Over 2.5 out near +121. The market expects a cagey, low-event game.
Meetings between these sides have consistently stayed tight and low-scoring, and Croatia are likely to set up conservatively away from home in an opener. England's clean-sheet record points toward a controlled 1-0 or 2-0 type win rather than a goal rush.
Verdict: Lean Under 2.5 goals at -135, with two disciplined defenses and a cautious Croatia pointing to a tight game.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 48¢ and No at 53¢, essentially a coin flip leaning slightly to No. Sportsbooks frame it similarly, with No favored around -135 and Yes out near +110.
The case for Yes leans on Croatia's experienced forwards in Kramarić and Perišić, who can punish England if given space on the break. They carry enough quality to find a goal.
The case for No is stronger here: England conceded nothing across qualifying, and Croatia's likely conservative approach limits their own attacking numbers. An England clean sheet is firmly in play.
Verdict: A slight lean to Both Teams to Score No at 53¢ on Kalshi, or -135 at the sportsbooks, with England's airtight defense the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
Tight openers between well-matched sides often start cautiously, and Croatia will be happy to keep things level early. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the Tie at 44¢, England at 41¢, and Croatia at 17¢.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the favorite around +115, England to lead at the break near +150, and Croatia ahead at half-time out around +550. A level scoreline at the interval is the most probable single outcome.
England's quality means an early goal is always possible, but Croatia's experience should keep the opening 45 tight. The value sits with a level first half, a read that fits the clean-sheet picture flagged across the Golden Glove award markets.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 44¢ on Kalshi, or +115 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with Croatia likely to keep it level early.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
England's attackers headline this market, with Croatia's experienced forwards offering value at longer prices. Harry Kane is the highest-probability scorer in the fixture.
- Harry Kane (England) - +130: England's captain, all-time leading scorer and penalty taker leads the line, and as the player most likely to receive service from Bellingham and Saka, he is the standout scorer pick against a vulnerable Croatia defense.
- Ollie Watkins (England) - +175: A direct, in-form striker option who offers pace in behind, Watkins is a strong play whether he starts or arrives off the bench.
- Bukayo Saka (England) - +295: England's most reliable creator from the right, Saka has the end product to stretch and punish a Croatia back line that no longer covers ground as it once did.
- Jude Bellingham (England) - +330: The Real Madrid midfielder arrives late into the box with real goal threat and remains England's biggest tournament talent.
- Andrej Kramarić (Croatia) - +330: Croatia's most reliable finisher with sharp movement between the lines, Kramarić is the underdogs' best route to a goal and the standout value on their side.
Verdict: Harry Kane at +130 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Kramarić at +330 the strongest value play for Croatia.
Injury Report
England arrive at full strength, with Tuchel able to field his settled, fit squad built around Kane, Bellingham, Saka and Rice. Their defensive organization has been a consistent theme, with no goals conceded across qualifying.
Croatia carry the bigger concern, with captain Luka Modrić having recovered from a cheekbone fracture sustained in the lead-up but confirmed in the squad and expected to feature. Josko Gvardiol is fully fit to anchor the defense, though Croatia's depth beyond their first-choice midfield is a question mark.
Weather Forecast
The 4:00 PM ET kickoff in Arlington falls during a hot Texas summer afternoon, but AT&T Stadium's retractable roof means the match will likely be played in controlled, climate-managed conditions. That removes the heat as a tactical factor.
With a dry, true surface and no weather disruption, both teams can play their natural game, favoring England's structured passing and Croatia's tempo-based midfield alike. The controlled environment keeps the focus squarely on quality and tactics.
How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026
- Time: 4:00 PM ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas (Dallas)
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
Croatia's veteran talisman Modrić is also worth tracking in the Golden Ball award markets in his final tournament, and for the best places to bet this fixture, see our guide to the top soccer betting sites. Back England to win with the Under and Harry Kane anytime as the standout plays on the board.