The 2026 World Cup Group F campaign opens with Sweden facing Tunisia at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey. In a group headlined by the Netherlands and Japan, both of these sides know early points are essential before the heavyweights come into view.
Sweden carry the more dangerous front line, built around Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak, but their defense has looked shaky in the lead-in. Tunisia qualified with a remarkable clean-sheet record and will set up to frustrate, making this a classic attack-versus-organization clash.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Sweden narrow favorites at around
-110, with the draw near
+240
and Tunisia the underdog at roughly
+320. That is a clear favorite without being a runaway, reflecting Tunisia's ability to dig in.
Kalshi's prediction market reads it as almost a coin flip at the top, pricing Sweden at
51%
to win in 90 minutes, the draw at
28%, and Tunisia at
22%. The Swedes are favored, but there is real value in Tunisia's resistance.
Sweden's extra quality in attack should be the difference, yet their defensive wobbles and Tunisia's discipline point to a tight contest. For context on how Sweden's forwards rate across the tournament, see
the Golden Boot race
markets.
Verdict:
Sweden at -110 is the lean, with their superior firepower edging a tight opener against a stubborn Tunisia.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Under 2.5 goals favored around
-160
and Over 2.5 out near
+128. The market strongly expects a low-scoring affair.
Tunisia's defensive discipline and the tense nature of an opener both point that way, with a 1-0 type Sweden win among the most likely outcomes. Sweden's forwards carry the threat to push the number, but a controlled, single-moment game is the more probable script.
Verdict:
Lean Under 2.5 goals at -160, with Tunisia's organization pointing to a low-scoring opener.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at
46¢
and No at
55¢, a lean toward No. Sportsbooks agree, with No favored around
-140
and Yes out near
+115.
The case for Yes leans on Sweden's leaky recent defense, which conceded multiple goals in several warm-ups, plus Tunisia's ability to punish on the counter. There is a path to goals at both ends.
The case for No is stronger here: Tunisia's attack has gone quiet, scoring just once in their last four before a heavy friendly defeat, so backing them to find the net is a leap. A Sweden win to nil is firmly in play.
Verdict:
A lean to Both Teams to Score No at 55¢ on Kalshi, or -140 at the sportsbooks, with Tunisia's blunt attack the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
Tense openers often start cautiously, and Tunisia will be happy to keep things level early. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the Tie at
46¢, Sweden at
37¢, and Tunisia at
19¢.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the favorite around
+105, Sweden to lead at the break near
+155, and Tunisia ahead at half-time out around
+450. A level scoreline at the interval is the most probable single outcome.
Sweden's attacking quality means an early goal is always possible, but Tunisia's structure should keep the opening 45 tight. The value sits with a level first half, a read echoed across
our wider World Cup previews and picks.
Verdict:
First-Half Draw at 46¢ on Kalshi, or +105 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with Tunisia likely to keep it level early.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Sweden's two elite strikers dominate this market, with Tunisia's forwards offering value at longer prices. Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak are the clear names to build around.
- Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden) - +120:
Sweden's physical, in-form focal point is the most likely name on the scoresheet, with the movement and finishing to break down even a disciplined Tunisia block.
- Alexander Isak (Sweden) - +135:
The Liverpool striker pairs with Gyökeres up top and is capable of scoring at any point, giving Sweden a second elite finisher against a defense that will be under sustained pressure.
- Anton Nygren (Sweden) - +320:
A likely starter in support of the front two, Nygren offers a secondary Swedish threat in a game the favorites should control for long spells.
- Hannibal Mejbri (Tunisia) - +650:
Tunisia's energetic Premier League midfielder drives their attack and is their best route to a goal from midfield runs and transitions.
- Hazem Mastouri (Tunisia) - +700:
The striker leads a limited Tunisia line and is a longshot to punish any rare clear chance the Eagles of Carthage create.
Verdict:
Viktor Gyökeres at +120 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Isak at +135 the strongest supporting play.
Injury Report
Sweden are close to full strength, with the main note being Alexander Isak, who had an injury-affected club season but has been included in the squad and is expected to feature. The bigger concern for Graham Potter is a defense that conceded freely in warm-ups rather than any specific absence.
Tunisia arrive without major reported injuries, able to lean on the organized core that drove their clean-sheet qualifying run under their head coach. Their issue is form and attacking output rather than fitness after a heavy friendly defeat to Belgium.
Weather Forecast
The 10:00 PM ET kickoff in Monterrey is expected to bring warm, humid conditions typical of northern Mexico in June, with some chance of evening showers. The heat and humidity could sap intensity over 90 minutes.
Those conditions favor Tunisia's energy-conserving, disciplined approach and could make Sweden's pressing harder to sustain late, raising the importance of the bench. A slower tempo also supports the low-scoring lean on this fixture.
How to Watch
- Date:
Sunday, June 14, 2026
- Time:
10:00 PM ET
- Location:
Estadio BBVA, Monterrey, Mexico
- US TV Station:
FS1 (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
Back Sweden to win with the Under and Viktor Gyökeres anytime as the standout plays on the board.
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